BRICS and China. And Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

WITH BRICS expanding while it also/already included massive markets India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, China is sure to hold on to its deposits of pertinent minerals to counter Mr Trump's tariff spikes. The US is world's #1 consumer market but with prices going up, buying behavior will change. Yet we know The D is pushing pieces on the chess table as gambits and variations, hoping to break the Chinese. But the CCP has the trade leverage and may even lure US allies to the table, with loan/investment sweeteners. 

       Mr Trump is also hoping for more FDIs but I don't think he (or any POTUS) can convince US giants to leave China; they may even expand to India and Indonesia. Bottomline, Trump tries to stock up chips leading to the stalled second phase of his trade pact with Xi Jinping. First phase was in January 2020. He hoped to continue the negotiations but he lost the 2020 election and Joe Biden's China playbook was different, totally hawkish (dare China to armed hostilities in South China Sea via Taiwan, which of course didn't work). 

       In just 4 years, China firmed up its economic clout: RCEP was formed in Nov 2020, right after Trump's loss. 14 Asia Pacific economies on Beijing's side. Then before the Gaza war, UAE, Egypt, Iran (+ Indonesia and Ethiopia) joined BRICS. Of course, China brokered the Saudi Arabia and Iran handshake before the war. Today: Trump's focus is wobbling. He overshot his expectations of (easily) ending the Ukraine and ME wars. Not the way it was in 2016. These wars are taxing him out, losing more trade chips. But let's see 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

FB Friend: “I seriously doubt we are ever going to see any upside to what D is doing, looking more and more like a loser's hand. He is steering the race car into a 10 car smash up.”

DONALD Trump knows that his playbook isn't going to work. Joe Biden's hawkish playbook didn't work as well. I don't think any other China policy will ever work for the US, or any other POTUS can fix this or bring manufacturing back to the US, due to several reasons. The only way is to sit with the Chinese and find a common ground, but they have the leverage. 

       The D is simply stocking up chips for the 2nd phase of his trade pact with China, which got stalled and messed up when Mr Biden took over. (The 1st phase took place in January 2020.) In Biden's time, China "went to work" as the US busied itself with two wars and internal Left vs. Right caterwauling. They did that during the Cold War; they bought lands NSEW of the globe to prime the Dragon up for its trade expansionism. 

       The last time that the U.S. had a trade surplus was in 1975, so they know what they were doing or planning. Anyhow, Mr Trump is showing his loyal minions that he is doing something per his campaign pledge. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

Dictatorship in America Yadda-Yadda.

Responses to Facebook chats.

MY experience with a real 20-year dictatorship, in seven facts/truths: <1>Attack of the press is an understatement. The newspaper that I wrote for was raided by soldiers and senior staff were jailed. Many colleagues (from other papers) either went missing (desaparecidos or dead) or shot dead in front of people. Jail-time? That's being lucky. <2>Pulling from the streets is easy. Many were "snatched" not by masked men but uniformed soldiers and cops in front of people. Student activists were thrown off the 7th floor of the building, others tortured to name names. More gruesome stories?

       <3>Universities? It was 20 years. We got used to soldiers following us students wherever we went so we never went anywhere alone. And I ran fast and hid well, LOL! <4> Investigate who? It was Martial Law. Marcos was prez for 20 years with Washington backing. Dem? GOP? Who cares? Marcos won in 1965, and swept out of power in 1986, rescued by Washington to Hawaii. 

       <5>The Marcos Family defied everybody except the benefactor America. <6>All companies gave 10 to 15 percent of their monthly profit to the family, delivered in a bag ("bayong") while the boss was playing golf. In their years the Philippines produced gold almost equal to South Africa. Where are the golds now? <7> Extrajudicial killings a.k.a. “salvagings” were "ordinary." If you don't see your kin or friend or neighbor in 2 or 3 days? Expect their lifeless body floating in the river or dumped in the dumpsite. Etc etcetera. 

       Dictatorship in America? What dictatorship? People insult Trump openly. Then? Do that to Imelda then run for your life, literally. LOL! 🇵🇭☮️🇺🇸

<>BASED on what I know and experienced (and covered from age 14) of a dictatorship, military rule or Martial Law, I don’t think it will ever happen in America. If we are in Indonesia or Nigeria et al, yes I believe dictatorship can happen (again). I don't think it will even happen in Japan or Germany or France. Why? The U.S., regardless of (whoever) POTUS, is the most powerful/influential country and #1 economy in the world. Internal tempest only weakens America’s global clout, especially that China gained the trade leverage and BRICS is fast matching G7 in economic influence. 

       The U.S. needs global support, more in this century as its clout diminishes. (Howard Zinn predicted before he died in 2010, repeat 2010, that this huge divide will happen. Yet Trump is the classic alibi.) 

       True, Mr Trump aims to bring manufacturing back but he is more trying to please his minions or attend to his campaign pledge than he is seeing reality. At least, he is trying–no POTUS can lure back the 8,600+ U.S. companies in China (they may even move to India or Indonesia, BRICS bloc members).But the President can attract more FDIs. The last year the U.S. had a surplus was 1975. So Bill Clinton’s trade pact with Jiang Zemin in 2000 was simply the “nail in the coffin” of America’s economic rule though the 1 Percent U.S. corporations got richer due to the obvious; as China’s state-owned industries (and globally tops 5 banks) accentuated the Dragon’s trade expansionism.

       Per the deportation of students, back home they were simply EJK’ed or salvaged. In fact the son of my editor is still missing for a decade or so now, of course dead. He was snatched by soldiers, post-Marcos years. Honestly, this DOGE clean-up should happen in other countries as well, especially those who received a lot of foreign aid that bred massive corruption, including the Philippines then and Ukraine now. 

       In Corazon Aquino’s years (1986-1991), I was a member of her PCGG (directly under her), tasked to clean-up agencies and prosecute Marcos cronies and recover the family’s ill-gotten wealth. But because the Marcoses’ “money” was already placed and secured elsewhere and they enjoyed superpower coddle, only a fraction of what they stole was recovered. I mean Imelda won her case in New York City, remember? I resigned after a year with PCGG because I didn’t conform with how some officials were “bought.” I also protested USAID, by the way. Aid is quid pro quo: Gimme (foreign corporation) the trade contract, you (government official) get the aid. 🇵🇭☮️🇺🇸

Trade Wars and Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

DURING Donald Trump's first "trade war" with China (2016 onwards), Vietnam and other smaller economies gained. The Philippines and others--with a huge labor force and supply of raw materials--should study how Vietnam did it. With other BRICS economies and non-aligned nations thinking more independently from the U.S./China economic head-butt, this tariff drama will not be this soap operatic. 

       Also because this is Mr Trump, anything that he does will be demonized by the New Left's media. Yet tariff tactics aren't new. Refer to Theodore Roosevelt or LBJ's tariff fight with Germany, and many more. 

       When China entered the WTO in 2001 (after the U.S. paved the way per U.S./China trade pact in 2000), tariff and duties and levies and corporate taxation that the West imposed for centuries have wobbled. The D is telling his voters that he can bring manufacturing back to the U.S. but he also knows he has to modify the playbook. No POTUS can bring America back to their pre-1975 trade surplus unless China and BRICS cease trading with Western allies (of course, that is not gonna happen). 

       Meanwhile, the 8,600+ U.S. companies in China may just expand in India and Indonesia. But Mr Trump can attract more FDIs to the US. Japan’s SoftBank, SK’s Hyundai and Taiwan’s TSMC are early birds. Nippon Steel may still acquire U.S. Steel that Biden blocked. This was China’s trick in the first 10 years after 2001. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

I DON'T think there's an economic panic. This is not that serious. George Soros crashed the Asian economy or currency in the 1990s with his speculative investing brinkmanship. That was also Japan’s “Lost Decade.” But as the region recovered, the Asian Tiger economies (and Tiger Cubs) flourished. Why? 

       We now go back to the Vietnam discussion. And whether we like it or not, China is right here. Note: In Nov 2020, as Biden was celebrating his win, China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies to form the largest trade bloc in history, the RCEP. So however the U.S. tries to bring the tilt back to the West, the East is prepared.

       But as I said, Donald Trump has to fulfill what he promised his minions. At least try to make America great again. The U.S. will never be the same not because China and BRICS balanced the scale but because America is imploding. The wide divide is crashing its own persona. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳