The Philippines on Biden Time: Filipinos revisit self while caught between a rock and a hard place

COVID-19's swath of horror hasn't subsided yet as 2021 enters the glade. The Philippines is the 28th worst-hit nation based on W.H.O. pandemic tally although Asia is the least-devastated region, so far. Meanwhile, the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte stays sunk in a murk of widespread criticism of leadership ineptitude and human rights violations, with or without the coronavirus.

            An utter inability to work around a sociopolitical clime that'd please the Philippines' perennially calamity-battered and culturally fragmented 109.5 million population punctuate the brash head of state's governance as it crawls to its fifth year next summer. Unable to secure affordable vaccine provisions for his disgruntled constituents despite new development aid/s from top benefactor United States last September, Duterte had to suffice, at least for now, with what China's state-owned Sinopharm could offer albeit more expensive that what the U.S./West's Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca et al pegged.

            Of course, Mr Duterte faces a complex and complicated geopolitical chessboard, played with unnerving unpredictability by Washington and Beijing, which only weakens his leverage/s. But Filipinos don't have the patience to pore deeper on the whys and wherefores of the superpower mindgames. The leader's dismissive demeanor is it. Duterte's PR crisis overshoots his officework. good or bad.

 

The Philippines in a West-East tug of war

THE Philippines' economic growth slipped to 5.9 percent, pre-pandemic 2019, from 2016's 6.9 percent when Duterte assumed office. Although unemployment didn't really change during his time per se compared with his predecessor Noynoy Aquino's last year, at around 5 percent, the current president now faces an almost 9 percent joblessness as he grapples for ways how to work around Covid-19. New daily cases of coronavirus infections are still at 4-digits, 6-digits total. Duterte has to issue a fix right here and right now as his people takes a holiday religious breather.

            Apparently the Philippine President, a favorite trajectory target of global media demonization, needs help more than ever from the country's traditional bestfriend America and its "new" trade buddy, China. Although Japan consistently stays as the Philippines' #2 trade partner behind the U.S. and on top of China, Washington and Beijing are undisputedly the world's top economic movers. Even Tokyo has to navigate how the two powers issue maneuvers and gambits and variations on the board. Yet as ever, the Philippines asks itself: Where to and how's that?

            Duterte's decision to avail of China/Sinopharm's Covid-19 vaccine instead of what the U.S.-controlled Pfizer, Moderna, and three more pharma giants that pursued development of vaccines with Washington funding aid could eventually offer, only accentuates the dire fact that Duterte's back is up against a wall. America or China? For now, he has got to go Chinese, while America cools out of its long-drawn partisanship drama and finally into leadership transition. It doesn't really matter that Beijing's vaccine, reportedly at $145 for two dozes, is more expensive than Pfizer's $19.50/dose. The Philippines has to buy a cure and then resume business, hoping of course, that Sinopharm's cure works.

            So what's up in January 2021 as Joe Biden sits? Let's wait and see.

 

Washington romance: From dovish Trump to hawkish Biden

THE defeat of trade-dealing Donald Trump to the expectedly "military hard-power" pushing Joe Biden in Nov 3 would mean a bit of a shakedown in upcoming Manila/Washington bilateral talks. Although America's Democratic Party has gained majority seats in the House, the Senate would still be essentially Republican. Expect more virulent bipartisanship headbutts in the U.S. come 2021.

            Despite high-intensity polar extreme murk-throw in America, which makes its #1 "stature" as worst hit by Covid-19 "less urgent," when it comes to dealing with China's obvious expansionism, the U.S. is on-target. At least, in terms of rhetoric. Anti-China zeal is the thingy that both Left and Right agree with. Yet from Bill Clinton's (re)defining trade pact with Jiang Zemin in 2000, Washington hasn't really introduced a strategy that'd at least halt China's march. Meantime, true to the Central Committee's historical tact, Beijing doesn't really wait whatever Washington is up to next. Xi Jinping had it all figured out; Mr Biden's tactics and strategies are just formalities. China always has fallbacks for blowbacks whatsoever. The Dragon's wicked resilience is still impeccable.

            Meantime, the Philippines got to weigh in how all these would play up in 2021.

            Last September, Duterte and Trump's administration signed a new 5-year USAID development assistance worth $675 million or around Php32 billion. Between 2016 and 2019, the U.S. has provided $554 million in military aid to the Philippines, which didn't really produce any significant shudder. Thanks to Trump's largely dovish tact. Yet America's 4-year fling with relative pacifism seems over. Expect more money on "security"-related matters in and around South China Sea as Washington's War Lobby gains ground, Bidentime.

            The House has recently passed a new Defense bill worth $741 billion, all-time U.S. military budget high. As both Japan and South Korea sought reduction of U.S. troops in their shore prior to 2019, the Philippines is Washington's logical fallback. Sure, Manila kicked Clark air base and Subic naval base out in 1991, but really? Or was it about Mt Pinatubo's eruption + end of Cold War and not really the Philippine Congress nay ink? Five more U.S. military bases and installations stay, strategically placed in the archipelago. Time to review and upgrade?

            Sadly though, Washington's cash, pledged or forwarded, didn't help Duterte much as the Philippines fell in pandemic murk. The second-worst hit in Southeast Asia. Prior to the virus scourge, a "terror bill" floated around as a prep to the next coming of the hawk? With Trump gone, it appears like a no-brainer.

            Meantime, it can be recalled that China's pledge of investments and aid to Manila worth around $24 billion in 2018 hasn't been fully delivered. Reason why Duterte has been to/fro in his dealings with both Beijing and Washington, pre-pandemic. For example, Duterte had sad he would avoid joining military exercises with the United States in the sea that his government disputes with China. Yet the Philippine navy still participated in the multicountry Rim of the Pacific exercises that the U.S. government hosts every two years.

           

China carries on as the U.S. remains high on drama

TWO weeks after the U.S. presidential election on Nov 3, 15 Asia-Pacific nations converged in a new alliance called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Led by China, the obvious post-Trump economic hookup in the East included powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Australia plus Singapore, New Zealand, Indonesia, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

            Designed to remove trade barriers, the region which holds 30 percent of global economy, should worry the incoming administration of Joe Biden, which is expected to (again!) go through massive bipartisan caterwaul and party infighting as liberals and progressives clash within Washington's hyperactive Democratic Party.

            Conspicuously absent at RCEP held on Nov 15 was India, which is currently the worst Covid-19 hit nation in Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also faces tempest from the agriculture sector which employs more than 50 percent of the giant country's 400 million strong workforce. India is of course the United States' economic fallback in case Beijing stays overprotective of its fort. As per first phase of the new U.S./China trade pact signed on January this year, China is obliged to purchase U.S. products and services worth $200 billion in two years time. That'd mean the Chinese would buy American but that should be equalled by the U.S. cutting shipments of Beijing imports. Easier said than done.

            Meantime, the U.S. lowers tariffs on Chinese goods and maintain 25 percent duties on roughly $250 billion worth of stuff and things mainly by manufacturers to make finished products in America. The U.S. also keeps a 7.5 percent tariff on another $120 billion worth of mostly consumer goods like jackets, gloves, footwear and flat panel electronic displays — all rolled back from 15 percent. However, nearly 30 percent of U.S. goods exports to China are not covered by the phase one deal.

            Whatever the case, China is expected to abide by the Jan 2020 Trump/Xi trade pact. But true to its preparedness and resilience, the Central Committee already had, obviously, a post-Trump plan. The RCEP. What Beijing would probably "lose" in the 2020 trade agreement, it'd recoup via the new Asia Pacific trade partnership.

            Beijing's economic march didn't really shudder per Covid-19 pandemic. Fact is, China's pace-setting $4.6 trillion worth of trade is the global economic engine. The country's trade balance of $367 billion rules the roost, meaning its overall exports are higher than its imports. Hence the easing of barriers via RCEP deals means China will still be dominating manufacturing even though most of these would be partnerships with other nations, not just the 14 signatories to RCEP. Meanwhile this alliance is the game-changer so far.

            But whether this will change/alter the Philippines' middleground "game" between Washington and Beijing remains to be seen.

 

China on the driver's seat.

THE clear as sun picture is: China is the world's #1 economic mover even if the United States dictates how Made in China merch are marketed, priced, or sold.

            Trump worked in and around China's game on the chess table, putting more premium on trade move variations and tariff gambits over America's historical protocol of war intrigue and security/military brinkmanship or protectionist pressure-points as foreign policy leverage/s. Sure, Trump's deviation from the grid courted a 4-year vilification extravaganza from the other side of political/profit 1 Percent gods, which apparently lost mojo in business haggling and stuff. How's that? Think Amazon losing out to Flipkart/Walmart in India's e-commerce and Hunter Biden's natural gas push in re Moscow/Berlin by way of Kiev energy/natural gas battle in Ukraine on a standstill till dad sits.

            But all these don't really affect China or the East compared with the West, especially European Union, which hasn't really gotten off the debt crisis ushered by 2009 recession. For Beijing, it's business as usual. Its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, designed to link regions via trade a-la 21st century Silk Road, is all set as Moscow gains in energy (oil and natural gas) global sales. Take note: Russia is #2 in oil exports and #1 in natural gas exports but the U.S., despite #1 ranking in oil production, is only #4 in both energy exports.

            So how does America at least halt China and Russia's ballroom dance? Both superpowers aren't Cold War-ring anymore; they are trading. On Bidentime, America and its European/NATO buddies will be back at a hawkish swagger, same policies that Joe's boss Barack Obama ineffectively waged for 8 years. Obama upped Defense budget to $721 billion in 2010 as recession crawled in the heartland.

            As most of the world a.k.a. West allies cringe in pandemic misery, border hostilities and civil strife rock nations NSEW of the globe. Enter Pentagon's new, astronomical military budget. Hence a Ramboesque foreign policy is back in Joe Biden era. Then we go to the Philippines, with its leadership painfully either confused or confusing since 2016. Should it go Chinese and abandon America, diss China and renew U.S. friendship of yore? Who knows. Yet President Duterte joining the RCEP joint accentuates the fact that Manila is torn between two lovers.

           

Washington military (re)strategy and Beijing's economic promise: Where to, Philippines?

ALTHOUGH the global writings on the wall say a clear message, it'd be hard to reject Washington's military restrategy to hopefully regain leverage on the trade table. America still controls the narrative hence the global perception. Yet militarism which was conveniently spun by "war of global terror" has lost considerable traction. Two major troublemakers out of the Gulf, ISIS' Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Iran's Quds' Qassen Soleimani were both taken out during Trump time.

            The signs that point to a world leaning towards the dove's olive branch over the hawk's claws seem no brainers: Russia has cut its Defense budget from #3 in the world to #9 last year to focus on economic diversification as augmented by the soon to be finished Nord Stream natural gas pipeline (to Western Europe). Oil-rich Middle East starts to sneer at "arms for oil" deals with the U.S. as the region heavily-diversifies from merely petroleum trade. Several handshakes between former Gulf enemies attest to the dictum war is bad for business.

            Meantime, as I noted below Japan and South Korea, #1 and #2 hosts of largest American troops overseas want lesser U.S. military presence in their midst. Australia and Singapore, both signatories to RCEP, could follow. Singapore already closed two Raytheon plants.

            As we entered a new millennia twenty years ago, relations between the Philippines and the United States also somehow wittingly or unwittingly waded in and around a tilt in geopolitical power play, anchored on China's advent as a global economic powerhouse. Following the gamechanging 2020 U.S./China trade pact, which paved the way for the Dragon's entry to the World Trade Organization as a favored new member, the Philippines, erstwhile top U.S. ally and security/military buffer in the East, got dragged into an entirely new superpower contest sans the destructive intrigue of Cold War.

            Yet despite media's fascination with pitting Washington vs Beijing as supposedly "warring" giants, the fact is they are not warring. They are actively dealing business. They are the world's top trade partners with export/import business amounting to $559 billion. The "trade war" was a kind of negotiation demeanor.

            So whether the Philippines concurs or not, or whoever it opts to kowtow with, however the ebb and tide of economic hawing between Washington and Beijing turns into, Manila simply allows itself to flow where the clime appears to blow. Which is how President Rodrigo Duterte seemed to play his cards. Or was he really playing on the table where his cards are either exposed or he has no high aces to play anymore. Or does he even know it? 

            Apparently, Duterte sought to please both benefactors. For now, he is with China per RCEP. But wait till Joe Biden finally sits in White House. Hence the Philippines remains in eerie theater of superpower tug of war. Torn between lovers or caught between a rock and a hard place. Such is the Philippines' chosen role, it seems. So it isn't really about the United States or China. It is about the Philippines. To simplify the analogy, in the context of Covid-19, what'd be the Philippines' choice of vaccine? Sinopharm or Pfizer? For now it's Sinopharm.

            This brings us to fundamental of human response. Should the Philippines stay this way? It is imperative that we look within and reexamine what we have lost, gambled away, or carelessly gave away. From ineptitude in governance to a fragmented population, from complacency in primal healthcare to lost in communal resilience, we need to go back to where we came in and restart. No revolution or election can change this institutionalized malady. The reexamination is individual and familial. Then communal/collective village-level as was the goal of government decentralization of Local Government Code. From there, we can go national. Regional and so on so forth. It would seem like going back to grade school.

            But that isn't really bad at all. Alvin Toffler wrote in 1969, as the world slides into computer technology that hinted of a global upheaval stronger than industrial revolution from agrarian paradigms: "The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn." 

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