I
SEE myself as a deeply-perusing observer. Meantime, my reflex usually
veers away from taking sides—and opts for reason and wisdom even
beyond my own convenience. I'd like to say that as backdrop to my
(continuing) observation of China—a consuming thesis that dates
back to my childhood. The Chinese has always perplexed and mystified,
intrigued me. From the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 and Deng
Xiao Ping's ushering of Beijing's economic open-door policy to the
hubbub that it sent to World Trade Organization at Bill Clinton's
administration (remember the Battle of Seattle?) to Foxconn's clout
to the South China Sea tempest etc etcetera.
The
Chinese are a kind of humanity that don't talk much. They just work
and deliver what you want. Reject it, they'd complain less—and
quietly leave. After sometime, they'd show up with a new prototype or
alternative until you are convinced. When they fall into silence or
sleep, don't settle—they are actually (re)planning things out.
For
years since the huge nation's WTO entry in 2001, the Chinese
economy's expansion has been relentlessly breakneck. As provincial
entrepreneurs enjoyed Beijing's subsidy, rapid development has
turned fishing villages into factory towns and factory towns into
financial hubs. But that's not all heaven. “Heavy investment has
crowded out consumption, and heavy industry has muscled out services,
as if making stuff mattered more than serving people,” The
Economist writes. China's socialism/communism's interface with
Western-styled capitalism has somehow shook the gains of the Cultural
Revolution's populist wisdom. But then, wait. Is that all bad? Not
really.
In
other words, China is sliding to a new phase of its march to modern
times, Western-style. From manufacturing, Beijing sets its gears at
consumers and services, two promising trends that work around each
other. Because services are more labor intensive than industry, their
growth boosts wages and household income. Money on the hand of the
consumers. Heftier take-home pay jacks up consumption, and consumer
spending, in turn, favors services.
But
then you think China will slow down its giant manufacturing machine?
No. They are just setting sight on other options. In other words,
China is pretty much aware not to follow the mistake/s of America. As
The Economist puts it, “As China’s economy matures, its pace will
slow. Fighting this economic law will only invite inflation, excess
and harder reckonings. Growing fast is a poor alternative to growing
up.”
LET's
look beyond the mainland and check what the Chinese are up to. I am
leaving the South China Sea maneuverings on this discussion and
instead focus across continents.
Since
2008 China has agreed some $500 billion in currency swaps with nearly
30 countries, from Canada to Pakistan, which gives the counterparties
access to yuan when trouble is suspect. A currency swap is a foreign
exchange derivative between two institutions to exchange the
principal and/or interest payments of a loan in one currency for
equivalent amounts, in net present value terms, in another currency.
Currency swaps are motivated by comparative advantage, an economic
theory about the work gains from trade for individuals, firms, or
nations that arise from differences in their factor endowments or
technological progress.
Meanwhile,
Chinese banks have lent $50 billion to Venezuela since 2007.
Argentina is the second-biggest recipient of Chinese loans in South
America. Then there is Russia, who may have the largest deposit of
crude oil in the world, but its economy isn't enough to develop the
natural. Again, Chinese banks have lent more than $30 billion to
Russian oil companies.
What
does that infer? That is a loud testament to China’s remarkable
growth. And more significantly, China it seems or it appears is
setting up development banks intended to challenge the dominance of
the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Analysts
have always sounded that China is on track to surpass America as the
world’s biggest economy within a decade. These are nagging hints.
Chinese banks have been making its move continent to continent.
Let
me touch Brexit for a bit and look sideways. This is all about the
world's
major banks, of course! No surprise why UK's HSBC Holdings, top
European bank, wanted out of European Union. It's not really the
country that's bolting out per se. It's the bank. Hence, if BNP
Paribas and Credit Agricole Group rebel, then expect France to
withdraw from EU as well. And join the Chinese? Not far-fetched.
I
repeat, the Chinese
are a kind of humanity that don't talk much. They just work and
deliver what we want. They'll give `em to us. But we gotta admit it.
The Chinese have indeed gone a long way from lo meins and dumpling
soups. They have evolved into slick dudes on Brooks Brothers suits
sipping Dom Perignons in stretch limos, Ivy League-educated
assistants clutching iPads and iPhones on their beck and call. As The
Economist puts it, “The anachronistic state of global economic
governance is growing ever more glaring.” It has gone eastward.