COVID-19's swath of horror hasn't subsided yet as 2021 enters the glade. The Philippines is the 28th worst-hit nation based on W.H.O. pandemic tally although Asia is the least-devastated region, so far. Meanwhile, the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte stays sunk in a murk of widespread criticism of leadership ineptitude and human rights violations, with or without the coronavirus.
An utter inability to
work around a sociopolitical clime that'd please the Philippines' perennially
calamity-battered and culturally fragmented 109.5 million population punctuate
the brash head of state's governance as it crawls to its fifth year next
summer. Unable to secure affordable vaccine provisions for his disgruntled
constituents despite new development aid/s from top benefactor United States
last September, Duterte had to suffice, at least for now, with what China's state-owned
Sinopharm could offer albeit more expensive that what the U.S./West's Pfizer,
Moderna, AstraZeneca et al pegged.
Of course, Mr Duterte
faces a complex and complicated geopolitical chessboard, played with unnerving
unpredictability by Washington and Beijing, which only weakens his leverage/s.
But Filipinos don't have the patience to pore deeper on the whys and wherefores
of the superpower mindgames. The leader's dismissive demeanor is it. Duterte's
PR crisis overshoots his officework. good or bad.
The Philippines
in a West-East tug of war
THE Philippines' economic growth slipped to 5.9 percent, pre-pandemic 2019, from 2016's 6.9 percent when Duterte assumed office. Although unemployment didn't really change during his time per se compared with his predecessor Noynoy Aquino's last year, at around 5 percent, the current president now faces an almost 9 percent joblessness as he grapples for ways how to work around Covid-19. New daily cases of coronavirus infections are still at 4-digits, 6-digits total. Duterte has to issue a fix right here and right now as his people takes a holiday religious breather.
Apparently the Philippine President, a favorite trajectory target of global media demonization, needs help more than ever from the country's traditional bestfriend America and its "new" trade buddy, China. Although Japan consistently stays as the Philippines' #2 trade partner behind the U.S. and on top of China, Washington and Beijing are undisputedly the world's top economic movers. Even Tokyo has to navigate how the two powers issue maneuvers and gambits and variations on the board. Yet as ever, the Philippines asks itself: Where to and how's that?
Duterte's decision to
avail of China/Sinopharm's Covid-19 vaccine instead of what the U.S.-controlled
Pfizer, Moderna, and three more pharma giants that pursued development of
vaccines with Washington funding aid could eventually offer, only accentuates
the dire fact that Duterte's back is up against a wall. America or China? For
now, he has got to go Chinese, while America cools out of its long-drawn
partisanship drama and finally into leadership transition. It doesn't really
matter that Beijing's vaccine, reportedly at $145 for two dozes, is more
expensive than Pfizer's $19.50/dose. The Philippines has to buy a cure and then
resume business, hoping of course, that Sinopharm's cure works.
So what's up in
January 2021 as Joe Biden sits? Let's wait and see.
Washington
romance: From dovish Trump to hawkish Biden
THE defeat of trade-dealing Donald Trump to the expectedly "military hard-power" pushing Joe Biden in Nov 3 would mean a bit of a shakedown in upcoming Manila/Washington bilateral talks. Although America's Democratic Party has gained majority seats in the House, the Senate would still be essentially Republican. Expect more virulent bipartisanship headbutts in the U.S. come 2021.
Despite
high-intensity polar extreme murk-throw in America, which makes its #1
"stature" as worst hit by Covid-19 "less urgent," when it
comes to dealing with China's obvious expansionism, the U.S. is on-target. At
least, in terms of rhetoric. Anti-China zeal is the thingy that both Left and
Right agree with. Yet from Bill Clinton's (re)defining trade pact with Jiang
Zemin in 2000, Washington hasn't really introduced a strategy that'd at least
halt China's march. Meantime, true to the Central Committee's historical tact,
Beijing doesn't really wait whatever Washington is up to next. Xi Jinping had
it all figured out; Mr Biden's tactics and strategies are just formalities.
China always has fallbacks for blowbacks whatsoever. The Dragon's wicked
resilience is still impeccable.
Meantime, the
Philippines got to weigh in how all these would play up in 2021.
Last September,
Duterte and Trump's administration signed a new 5-year USAID development
assistance worth $675 million or around Php32 billion. Between 2016 and 2019,
the U.S. has provided $554 million in military aid to the Philippines, which
didn't really produce any significant shudder. Thanks to Trump's largely dovish
tact. Yet America's 4-year fling with relative pacifism seems over. Expect more
money on "security"-related matters in and around South China Sea as
Washington's War Lobby gains ground, Bidentime.
The House has
recently passed a new Defense bill worth $741 billion, all-time U.S. military
budget high. As both Japan and South Korea sought reduction of U.S. troops in
their shore prior to 2019, the Philippines is Washington's logical fallback.
Sure, Manila kicked Clark air base and Subic naval base out in 1991, but
really? Or was it about Mt Pinatubo's eruption + end of Cold War and not really
the Philippine Congress nay ink? Five more U.S. military bases and
installations stay, strategically placed in the archipelago. Time to review and
upgrade?
Sadly though, Washington's cash, pledged or forwarded, didn't help Duterte much as the Philippines fell in pandemic murk. The second-worst hit in Southeast Asia. Prior to the virus scourge, a "terror bill" floated around as a prep to the next coming of the hawk? With Trump gone, it appears like a no-brainer.
Meantime, it can be
recalled that China's pledge of investments and aid to Manila worth around $24
billion in 2018 hasn't been fully delivered. Reason why Duterte has been to/fro
in his dealings with both Beijing and Washington, pre-pandemic. For example,
Duterte had sad he would avoid joining military exercises with the United
States in the sea that his government disputes with China. Yet the Philippine
navy still participated in the multicountry Rim of the Pacific exercises that
the U.S. government hosts every two years.
China carries on
as the U.S. remains high on drama
TWO weeks after the U.S. presidential election on Nov 3, 15
Asia-Pacific nations converged in a new alliance called Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP). Led by China, the obvious post-Trump economic
hookup in the East included powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Australia plus
Singapore, New Zealand, Indonesia, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
Designed to remove
trade barriers, the region which holds 30 percent of global economy, should
worry the incoming administration of Joe Biden, which is expected to (again!)
go through massive bipartisan caterwaul and party infighting as liberals and
progressives clash within Washington's hyperactive Democratic Party.
Conspicuously absent at RCEP held on Nov 15 was India, which is currently the worst Covid-19 hit nation in Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also faces tempest from the agriculture sector which employs more than 50 percent of the giant country's 400 million strong workforce. India is of course the United States' economic fallback in case Beijing stays overprotective of its fort. As per first phase of the new U.S./China trade pact signed on January this year, China is obliged to purchase U.S. products and services worth $200 billion in two years time. That'd mean the Chinese would buy American but that should be equalled by the U.S. cutting shipments of Beijing imports. Easier said than done.
Meantime, the U.S.
lowers tariffs on Chinese goods and maintain 25 percent duties on roughly $250
billion worth of stuff and things mainly by manufacturers to make finished
products in America. The U.S. also keeps a 7.5 percent tariff on another $120
billion worth of mostly consumer goods like jackets, gloves, footwear and flat
panel electronic displays — all rolled back from 15 percent. However, nearly 30
percent of U.S. goods exports to China are not covered by the phase one deal.
Whatever the case,
China is expected to abide by the Jan 2020 Trump/Xi trade pact. But true to its
preparedness and resilience, the Central Committee already had, obviously, a
post-Trump plan. The RCEP. What Beijing would probably "lose" in the
2020 trade agreement, it'd recoup via the new Asia Pacific trade partnership.
Beijing's economic
march didn't really shudder per Covid-19 pandemic. Fact is, China's
pace-setting $4.6 trillion worth of trade is the global economic engine. The
country's trade balance of $367 billion rules the roost, meaning its overall
exports are higher than its imports. Hence the easing of barriers via RCEP
deals means China will still be dominating manufacturing even though most of
these would be partnerships with other nations, not just the 14 signatories to
RCEP. Meanwhile this alliance is the game-changer so far.
But whether this will
change/alter the Philippines' middleground "game" between Washington
and Beijing remains to be seen.
China on the driver's
seat.
THE clear as sun picture is: China is the world's #1 economic mover even if the United States dictates how Made in China merch are marketed, priced, or sold.
Trump worked in and
around China's game on the chess table, putting more premium on trade move
variations and tariff gambits over America's historical protocol of war
intrigue and security/military brinkmanship or protectionist pressure-points as
foreign policy leverage/s. Sure, Trump's deviation from the grid courted a
4-year vilification extravaganza from the other side of political/profit 1
Percent gods, which apparently lost mojo in business haggling and stuff. How's
that? Think Amazon losing out to Flipkart/Walmart in India's e-commerce and
Hunter Biden's natural gas push in re Moscow/Berlin by way of Kiev
energy/natural gas battle in Ukraine on a standstill till dad sits.
But all these don't
really affect China or the East compared with the West, especially European
Union, which hasn't really gotten off the debt crisis ushered by 2009
recession. For Beijing, it's business as usual. Its ambitious Belt and Road
Initiative, designed to link regions via trade a-la 21st century Silk Road, is
all set as Moscow gains in energy (oil and natural gas) global sales. Take
note: Russia is #2 in oil exports and #1 in natural gas exports but the U.S.,
despite #1 ranking in oil production, is only #4 in both energy exports.
So how does America
at least halt China and Russia's ballroom dance? Both superpowers aren't Cold
War-ring anymore; they are trading. On Bidentime, America and its European/NATO
buddies will be back at a hawkish swagger, same policies that Joe's boss Barack
Obama ineffectively waged for 8 years. Obama upped Defense budget to $721
billion in 2010 as recession crawled in the heartland.
As most of the world
a.k.a. West allies cringe in pandemic misery, border hostilities and civil
strife rock nations NSEW of the globe. Enter Pentagon's new, astronomical
military budget. Hence a Ramboesque foreign policy is back in Joe Biden era.
Then we go to the Philippines, with its leadership painfully either confused or
confusing since 2016. Should it go Chinese and abandon America, diss China and
renew U.S. friendship of yore? Who knows. Yet President Duterte joining the
RCEP joint accentuates the fact that Manila is torn between two lovers.
Washington
military (re)strategy and Beijing's economic promise: Where to, Philippines?
ALTHOUGH the global writings on the wall say a clear message, it'd be hard to reject Washington's military restrategy to hopefully regain leverage on the trade table. America still controls the narrative hence the global perception. Yet militarism which was conveniently spun by "war of global terror" has lost considerable traction. Two major troublemakers out of the Gulf, ISIS' Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Iran's Quds' Qassen Soleimani were both taken out during Trump time.
The signs that point
to a world leaning towards the dove's olive branch over the hawk's claws seem
no brainers: Russia has cut its Defense budget from #3 in the world to #9 last
year to focus on economic diversification as augmented by the soon to be
finished Nord Stream natural gas pipeline (to Western Europe). Oil-rich Middle
East starts to sneer at "arms for oil" deals with the U.S. as the
region heavily-diversifies from merely petroleum trade. Several handshakes
between former Gulf enemies attest to the dictum war is bad for business.
Meantime, as I noted
below Japan and South Korea, #1 and #2 hosts of largest American troops
overseas want lesser U.S. military presence in their midst. Australia and
Singapore, both signatories to RCEP, could follow. Singapore already closed two
Raytheon plants.
As we entered a new
millennia twenty years ago, relations between the Philippines and the United States
also somehow wittingly or unwittingly waded in and around a tilt in
geopolitical power play, anchored on China's advent as a global economic
powerhouse. Following the gamechanging 2020 U.S./China trade pact, which paved
the way for the Dragon's entry to the World Trade Organization as a favored new
member, the Philippines, erstwhile top U.S. ally and security/military buffer
in the East, got dragged into an entirely new superpower contest sans the
destructive intrigue of Cold War.
Yet despite media's fascination with pitting Washington vs Beijing as supposedly "warring" giants, the fact is they are not warring. They are actively dealing business. They are the world's top trade partners with export/import business amounting to $559 billion. The "trade war" was a kind of negotiation demeanor.
So whether the
Philippines concurs or not, or whoever it opts to kowtow with, however the ebb
and tide of economic hawing between Washington and Beijing turns into, Manila
simply allows itself to flow where the clime appears to blow. Which is how
President Rodrigo Duterte seemed to play his cards. Or was he really playing on
the table where his cards are either exposed or he has no high aces to play
anymore. Or does he even know it?
Apparently, Duterte
sought to please both benefactors. For now, he is with China per RCEP. But wait
till Joe Biden finally sits in White House. Hence the Philippines remains in
eerie theater of superpower tug of war. Torn between lovers or caught between a
rock and a hard place. Such is the Philippines' chosen role, it seems. So it
isn't really about the United States or China. It is about the Philippines. To
simplify the analogy, in the context of Covid-19, what'd be the Philippines'
choice of vaccine? Sinopharm or Pfizer? For now it's Sinopharm.
This brings us to
fundamental of human response. Should the Philippines stay this way? It is
imperative that we look within and reexamine what we have lost, gambled away,
or carelessly gave away. From ineptitude in governance to a fragmented
population, from complacency in primal healthcare to lost in communal
resilience, we need to go back to where we came in and restart. No revolution
or election can change this institutionalized malady. The reexamination is
individual and familial. Then communal/collective village-level as was the goal
of government decentralization of Local Government Code. From there, we can go
national. Regional and so on so forth. It would seem like going back to grade
school.
But that isn't really
bad at all. Alvin Toffler wrote in 1969, as the world slides into computer
technology that hinted of a global upheaval stronger than industrial revolution
from agrarian paradigms: "The illiterate of the 21st century will not be
those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and
relearn."
xxx
