Joe Biden's Presidential Tact.

WEIRD thing about President Biden's foreign policy playbook: He threatens China if it aids Russia (vs Ukraine) by (recently) meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and warns of a partnership in the region to "counter China." At least, no fist-bump was exchanged.

       Didn't Potus know that the top 2 buyers of Moscow's oil since the start of the war (in Ukraine) are China and India, who are BRICS buddies with Russia? 

       Meanwhile, since he couldn't convince Taiwan to diss China or he failed to goad China to invade Taiwan, he instead offers $6.6 billion in federal money to Taipei's TSMC to build a microchip factory in Phoenix. (Another $6.4 billion is handed to South Korea’s Samsung for a plant, also in Texas.) 

       But of course chips need silicon. So Joe (separately) sent both State secretary Antony Blinken (his third?) and Treasury chief Janet Yellen (her second trip) to China to ask Xi Jinping to take it easy with exports of silicon to other competitors. And suggest to sell them instead to the U.S. Or to TSMC, which is already being supplied by China, in the first place.

       All these as Mr Biden keeps on trumpeting the "Chinese danger." Of course, his stance in Israel follows the playbook. He castigates Bibi yet he pressures Congress to speed up shipment of new fighter planes to Israel. And warns of a widened war which is geared at Iran. The eventual, expected rationale of pumped-up military aid to Tel Aviv. Weird, wild world. 🏛🗽🏛

South China Sea. And Stuff.

Response to: “South China Sea issue, a global concern, says Japan.” 

OF course, the South China Sea is a global concern. Always is. Trillion$ worth of commercial/maritime shipping passed through it, for starters. These days as trade works in/around China, India, Japan, South Korea et al, SCS could be more valuable globally than the Persian Gulf, Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, or Baltic Sea. 

       Ergo, if a Gaza/Ukraine level war explodes in South China Sea, who benefits? The U.S. and Europe (or E.U.) or G7. Who gets derailed? China and India or BRICS. (The "odd man out" in both? Japan, who is also a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. 

       The RCEP free trade agreement gathers 15 Asia-Pacific nations, led by China and including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Singapore. These nations account for about 30 percent of the world's population and 30 percent of global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc in history. 

       Obviously, or clearly, we should know what powers benefit per current wars in Gaza (think reactivation of "arms for oil" in West/Middle East bilateral deals, think disruption of economic activities of new BRICS members from the region) and Ukraine (think NATO expansion, think natural gas, think Baltic Sea).    

      This neverending drama in South China Sea stays as that, drama. But the drama ups U.S. military aid mojo in the region. Already, Japan and South Korea are #1 and #3 top hosts of U.S. troops overseas. 

       However, per obvious reasons, China will not bite the Joe Biden dare. Potus' current rat trap is Taiwan but Taiwan's top trade partner is China, its kin. Stupid to fight bro. If ever China responds militarily? It would be via North Korea. Pyongyang can easily paralyze Asia by damaging nuclear plants in SK and Japan, while targeting U.S. military there. 

       Yet all Kim Jong-un does is counter bullying the West. Of course. In all, if war does indeed happen? Who get hit? Asians. America and Europe stay relatively safe and comfortable. China is formidable as a Wall (think Boxer Rebellion of yore as historical basis).

       However, Beijing or CCP isn't that dumb to wage war in Asia, with its investments scattered all over the region and its cultural bloodline imprinted all over. ☮️☮️☮️

Visual: U.S. Naval Institute.

GAZA DISCUSSION.

Just talking about stuff. Response friends’ post on Facebook, slightly edited. 

THE usual words of many ex-soldiers or current soldiers in the U.S. when they talk of their “tour of duty” in war: "We fought in (Afghanistan etcetera) to keep Americans safe." They carry the valiant declaration as "badge of honor." They really believe those words deeply. By pummeling other countries to destruction and deaths, they “protect” America. When you tell them that they actually protect American corporations' interests and geopolitical narcissism (which go hand in hand), they'd get angry. Never in their mind as well that for every civilian abroad that they take out, another prospective terrorist is recruited, and that would endanger Americans more.

       Many soldiers that I know came home with PTSD, many are homeless drunks and incoherent junkies, walking-dead in denial, rotting in guilt. Yet Washington (and the European Union) never see/s all these. Western powers continue to waste taxpayer money on military aid and "defense" budget so its giant 1 Percent corporations will continue to rule the world. (Which, of course, they did for centuries till the 21st.) 

FOR a start, per Ukraine war (which President Joe Biden goaded) the U.S. is now #1 natural gas exporter. It was Russia before the invasion in February 2022. Thing is, I believe, Russia doesn't really care if it is #2 or #3 as long as BRICS bros China and India buy from Gazprom Moscow. And so American energy giantsnow run Kyiv's Naftogaz as pawned by Volodymyr Zelensky.

       Meanwhile, I incessantly wondered out loud: What power really pushed Oct 7 to happen? Before that day, Mideast powers Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and UAE (+ Ethiopia and Argentina) were set to join BRICS. Saudi Arabia and Iran shook hands on China's intercession. Syria was taken back by the Arab League. And Israel was set to sit with Saudi Arabia to discuss peace. 

       In fact, Israel even ignored Mr Biden's call to send arms or military aid to Ukraine. Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah et al are known Iran "foot soldiers" so it's no brainer. Rail Iran, war is back. “Arms for oil" has always been the crux of the West’s bilateral deals with oil-rich Arab nations since discovery of oil in the desert in the 1940s (and Israel's birth in 1948). But since the Arab Spring of 2011, Arab nations have been wanting to run their life and trade with less Washington and Brussels interference. Hence "arms for oil" lost traction. Should be. 

       This now-super rich region of MENA has been diversifying business so war isn't needed. Golf in Riyadh, fashion shows in Abu Dhabi, car races in Dubai, concerts in Qatar etc etcetera. Then war happened. President Biden though was unsuccessful in goading China over Taiwan in South China Sea but you know that story isn't done yet. ☮️☮️☮️

Current Geopolitical Struggles.

New York Times: “A Titanic Geopolitical Struggle Is Underway.” Although I do not see a Third World War as others tend to blabber, an intense contest is hot and high brought by realignments in the geopolitical power grid. Response to U.S. call to sanction Russia per Ukraine invasion offered hint. Except for the West, all others snubbed the military aid wagon trail. Then comes Israel’s Gaza annihilation, which engages not really the terror groups but the Arab League. 

       Before the Oct 7 Hamas attack of Israel, realignment was already up. China brokered a Saudi Arabia/Iran fist-bump. Syria returned to the Arab League. The bigger jolt to the West: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined mighty China, Russia and India in the BRICS bloc. Suddenly, G7’s formidable fort starts to wobble. Yet the real contest is economics, not military. 

THE West: G7 or Group of Seven (G7): Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Economics, the U.S. and Europe control the I.M.F. and World Bank. <>The East: BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa + new members Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia. China heads the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 

       WEST. Military collective NATO is basically Europe or G7 sans Japan, though Japan hosts the 3rd largest number of U.S. troops abroad. 

       EAST, essentially trade based. China’s four state-owned banks are the largest banks in the world: Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. China also presides over the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. RCEP is The largest trade bloc in history, so far. BRICS’ Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader of the Arab League, with 22 member-countries. ☮️☮️☮️