Compilation of short MORNING THOUGHTS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

Does the West really want Peace? I am very frustrated how governments of the U.S. and Europe preferred to send more weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine, instead of maximizing diplomatic avenues and peace negotiations with Russia. Defense? Kiev has a huge army + U.S. forces. End of war is more imperative. More arms mean more fighting. More deaths, more destruction. Yet historically, it is the West that is forever involved in wars. Another Afghanistan? ☮️☮️☮️

I don’t dig it when people respond with newslinks or memes. Especially in these days of war when what we toss in here ignites more confusion than calm. I don’t care if that link or meme came from a Rock `n Roll God/dess or Wonder Woman. I am old, therefore old-school. Tell me, when you talk with real people in person do you hand them a googled page on your cellphone or flash a placard with a face of some guy who looks like your ex'es alcoholic ex? Speak your mind! 😞😟🤓

Gasoline price, per gallon in California is $4.94 for regular and $5.23 for premium. In North Carolina: $3.65 and $4.28. National average is $3.72. Last time gasoline was that high or higher was in 2008. I was in California. Of course, many will point at the Ukraine situation for this mess and the auto-blame goes to Vladimir Putin. But that was already the situation before Vlad’s shenanigan. Inflation was 7 percent and now it is 7.5 percent. Putin is simply the convenient excuse.⛽️💸🚧

We are atrociously gullible. Clickin’ and sharin’ on a whim. The current “fad” obviously is Ukraine. Saw that grandma with the dirty finger? I saw that photo several times in the last ten years. The “Ghost of Kyiv” that “shot down” Russian MiG fighter jets? Cured pic from the video game “Flight of the Intruder.” Good-looking “Ukranian women” wielding assault rifles? PR photo-shoots. Gal Gadot has a lot from her days as an Israel Defense Force soldier and as Miss Israel. 🤨📷🧐

When provoked, I cuss—but directed to the person of intent. My language can be as nasty as the next irate dude. But I wasn’t raised in a household that spoke sentiments in foul wordage. The traditional address of respect “po” and “opo” was obligatory. I am uncomfortable with cursing on social media. One arrogantly told me: “Who are you to tell people what a cuss word is and what isn’t?” I mean, if you don’t know what a cuss word is, I rest my case. 🗣👤👥

My (night) dreams are perennially hyperactive. Lots of people are there. Family, kin and friends. Then and now in the Philippines and America. The constant presence is my mother who passed away in 2005. In my dreams, she is younger mostly. My slumber journeys are well-structured activities. I guess our mind doesn’t really stop when we sleep. Very alive. When I finally wake up, I feel tired. Exhausted. When I open my eyes, cat and dog go: “Wazzup, dude? Fix our breakfast!” 🥱😴🤪

Presidential election in the Philippines is in May this year. The latest survey places Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. as frontrunner by over 40+ percentage points over its closest rival Leni Robredo. Memory of Bongbong’s dad’s 20-year dictatorial rule is hard to erase due to obvious reasons. But this new pre-vote data is alarming. Leni campaigners should veer away from too much dissing and shaming. Time to focus on real programs and elaboration of policies.

       Most voters in the Philippines these days are the young who, despite knowledge of the Marcos regime, didn’t experience those misery. Internet/social media influencers should start on a positive/light campaign feed over negativity/darkness barrage. Election back home is multiparty so if Leni’s people couldn’t sway BBM’s loyalists, why not focus on persuading followers of the other candidates to Leni’s side? Votes add up. 🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭

Product marketing these days? Honesty isn’t a virtue. Words that rule: Rebranding, influencing, market economics. For example, news says when Neil Young quit Spotify he’d lost around $750k a year. Maybe. Fact is, Neil neither lost nor won since he doesn’t own his songs anymore. He sold them to the U.K.-based Hipgnosis Fund for $150 million. Quitting Spotify was a sly business move since he and other older rockers don’t really earn much on audio streaming. 

       Spotify’s top-selling artists: Justin Bieber, DaBaby, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny. Top downloaded, global: Drake, Taylor Swift, BTS. Neil Young’s entire catalog is now available for streaming on Amazon Music, with most albums also featuring handy links if you want to buy the CD or vinyl. Now, if Hipgnosis doesn’t get ROV (return of investment) on a given time, expect Neil to diss Jeff Bezos. LOL! There’s a lot more to say versus Amazon, of course. 🎼😂🎼

Protests in works of art is a fact. But the “protest” is within the art. The art has to appeal first to a majority for the “protest” intent to work. If art or protest ceases or fails to cut across paradigm/political lines, it is a mere whine. Self-serving, divisive noise. “Woodstock” in 1969 effectively worked to help advocate anti-war mindset because it gathered as a musical convergence more than (as) a protest howl. Music has the sublime ability to get people of differing thoughts together. ?☮️🎼

I always read complaints that there are less black or African American coaches in the NBA. Inequality? Yet per 2020, the NBA is composed of 74.2 percent black players—and only 16.9 percent white players, 2.2 percent Latino players of any race, and 0.4 percent Asian players. In the NFL, it is an equal 57.5 percent black. In NCAA basketball, we also notice a lot of young recruits from Africa. Or do we just dig whining about a lot of things rather than just enjoying the game? 🏀🎽🏀

America's Wars.

Response to Facebook posts by Friends.

PRAGMATICALLY speaking, at least after the Vietnam War (1975, also the last U.S. trade surplus) or Cold War (1991, also end of Warsaw Pact), when was the time when Americans per se (Left and Right) didn't approve of war? Wars that are so far from our comfy couches? Maybe against the invasion of Iraq in 2003? Was the Left's disapproval mattered? 

       But the Left has changed from that point. In fact, when Barack Obama took over in 2009, anything that defined U.S. military brinkmanship was ignored by supposedly anti-war or anti-military aid activists in the next 8 years. The Occupy Movement in 2011 was a loud example of wasted “dissent” energy.

THE weird thing about this new challenge to President Trump to strike Iran (which he took)? The Left seems more elated that the decision to hit the alleged nuke weapon sites proved to them that, after all, pro-war, more than they are saddened that this conflict may escalate and ignite more horror. 

       To cool idiots: The U.S. doesn't need to invade or "join" a war (George W was the Master Idiot) to tell the world America is doing it. Ukraine and Israel, hello? Your taxes went there, regardless of Mr Trump. For one, Mr Obama upgraded the Israel military aid ($3 billion annually) with a 10-year $38 billion gift in 2016. That'll end next year. So these wars should extend that deal when it ends next year. A Congress rationale. 

       Ever heard of "arms for oil" bilateral deals in the desert? Since the birth of Israel in 1948? Meanwhile, the BRICS trade bloc is moving in MENA so the other side of U.S. 1 Percent doesn't like that, of course. With his handshakes with Saudi Arabia et al, The D wants to share the love with China and its partners but the hawks of Washington and the New Left don't want that. 

       My main point: The Left has abandoned their anti-war crusade in the name of their "anti Trump" hate. ☮️🗽☮️

FEMA and President Trump. And Stuff. Or the subject of The D allegedly “canceling” relief aid funding.

Responses to Facebook chats.

LAST year FEMA experienced a significant backlog in processing disaster declarations. The total amount of backlog was $9 billion or more. Also in 2024, the U.S. allocated $66.9 billion to Ukraine (figure out how much was military aid, and add those from Feb 2022). To Israel's war, between 2023 and 2024: $17.9 billion. This: The cost of each F16 fighter jet sent to wars in Joe Biden's time? $25 million to $70 million. 

       Three days ago, after shuffling money from elsewhere, Mr Trump approved the release of FEMA funds to 8 states. Repeat: Budget deficit last year was $9 billion. A report says he "canceled" FEMA funding in some communities. Nope. 

       Reorganizing, reviewing, and redirecting funding or even delaying them is NOT “canceling” as Left-wing media narrates it. Meanwhile, there is still huge-ass money allotted for Ukraine and Israel signed by Congress that can't just be erased, especially the $38 billion 10-year upgraded arms aid to Israel that Barack Obama signed in 2016. When we say Israel, we talk of the powerful Israel Lobby or AIPAC in Washington. Etc etcetera. 

       We were hardly hit by Hurricane Helene here in Asheville but WNC isn't as poor as calamity hit Mississippi or Oklahoma, which had to be prioritized--as Mr Trump continues to work on ending wars and striking trade deals. 

       How's Asheville? How am I supposed to compare post-typhoon Philippines (or Mississippi, the U.S. poorest) with post-hurricane Asheville, which is upper middle class? Downtown bars are again filled with beer bitches. 🏛🗽🏛

BRICS and China. And Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

WITH BRICS expanding while it also/already included massive markets India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, China is sure to hold on to its deposits of pertinent minerals to counter Mr Trump's tariff spikes. The US is world's #1 consumer market but with prices going up, buying behavior will change. Yet we know The D is pushing pieces on the chess table as gambits and variations, hoping to break the Chinese. But the CCP has the trade leverage and may even lure US allies to the table, with loan/investment sweeteners. 

       Mr Trump is also hoping for more FDIs but I don't think he (or any POTUS) can convince US giants to leave China; they may even expand to India and Indonesia. Bottomline, Trump tries to stock up chips leading to the stalled second phase of his trade pact with Xi Jinping. First phase was in January 2020. He hoped to continue the negotiations but he lost the 2020 election and Joe Biden's China playbook was different, totally hawkish (dare China to armed hostilities in South China Sea via Taiwan, which of course didn't work). 

       In just 4 years, China firmed up its economic clout: RCEP was formed in Nov 2020, right after Trump's loss. 14 Asia Pacific economies on Beijing's side. Then before the Gaza war, UAE, Egypt, Iran (+ Indonesia and Ethiopia) joined BRICS. Of course, China brokered the Saudi Arabia and Iran handshake before the war. Today: Trump's focus is wobbling. He overshot his expectations of (easily) ending the Ukraine and ME wars. Not the way it was in 2016. These wars are taxing him out, losing more trade chips. But let's see 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

FB Friend: “I seriously doubt we are ever going to see any upside to what D is doing, looking more and more like a loser's hand. He is steering the race car into a 10 car smash up.”

DONALD Trump knows that his playbook isn't going to work. Joe Biden's hawkish playbook didn't work as well. I don't think any other China policy will ever work for the US, or any other POTUS can fix this or bring manufacturing back to the US, due to several reasons. The only way is to sit with the Chinese and find a common ground, but they have the leverage. 

       The D is simply stocking up chips for the 2nd phase of his trade pact with China, which got stalled and messed up when Mr Biden took over. (The 1st phase took place in January 2020.) In Biden's time, China "went to work" as the US busied itself with two wars and internal Left vs. Right caterwauling. They did that during the Cold War; they bought lands NSEW of the globe to prime the Dragon up for its trade expansionism. 

       The last time that the U.S. had a trade surplus was in 1975, so they know what they were doing or planning. Anyhow, Mr Trump is showing his loyal minions that he is doing something per his campaign pledge. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

Dictatorship in America Yadda-Yadda.

Responses to Facebook chats.

MY experience with a real 20-year dictatorship, in seven facts/truths: <1>Attack of the press is an understatement. The newspaper that I wrote for was raided by soldiers and senior staff were jailed. Many colleagues (from other papers) either went missing (desaparecidos or dead) or shot dead in front of people. Jail-time? That's being lucky. <2>Pulling from the streets is easy. Many were "snatched" not by masked men but uniformed soldiers and cops in front of people. Student activists were thrown off the 7th floor of the building, others tortured to name names. More gruesome stories?

       <3>Universities? It was 20 years. We got used to soldiers following us students wherever we went so we never went anywhere alone. And I ran fast and hid well, LOL! <4> Investigate who? It was Martial Law. Marcos was prez for 20 years with Washington backing. Dem? GOP? Who cares? Marcos won in 1965, and swept out of power in 1986, rescued by Washington to Hawaii. 

       <5>The Marcos Family defied everybody except the benefactor America. <6>All companies gave 10 to 15 percent of their monthly profit to the family, delivered in a bag ("bayong") while the boss was playing golf. In their years the Philippines produced gold almost equal to South Africa. Where are the golds now? <7> Extrajudicial killings a.k.a. “salvagings” were "ordinary." If you don't see your kin or friend or neighbor in 2 or 3 days? Expect their lifeless body floating in the river or dumped in the dumpsite. Etc etcetera. 

       Dictatorship in America? What dictatorship? People insult Trump openly. Then? Do that to Imelda then run for your life, literally. LOL! 🇵🇭☮️🇺🇸

<>BASED on what I know and experienced (and covered from age 14) of a dictatorship, military rule or Martial Law, I don’t think it will ever happen in America. If we are in Indonesia or Nigeria et al, yes I believe dictatorship can happen (again). I don't think it will even happen in Japan or Germany or France. Why? The U.S., regardless of (whoever) POTUS, is the most powerful/influential country and #1 economy in the world. Internal tempest only weakens America’s global clout, especially that China gained the trade leverage and BRICS is fast matching G7 in economic influence. 

       The U.S. needs global support, more in this century as its clout diminishes. (Howard Zinn predicted before he died in 2010, repeat 2010, that this huge divide will happen. Yet Trump is the classic alibi.) 

       True, Mr Trump aims to bring manufacturing back but he is more trying to please his minions or attend to his campaign pledge than he is seeing reality. At least, he is trying–no POTUS can lure back the 8,600+ U.S. companies in China (they may even move to India or Indonesia, BRICS bloc members).But the President can attract more FDIs. The last year the U.S. had a surplus was 1975. So Bill Clinton’s trade pact with Jiang Zemin in 2000 was simply the “nail in the coffin” of America’s economic rule though the 1 Percent U.S. corporations got richer due to the obvious; as China’s state-owned industries (and globally tops 5 banks) accentuated the Dragon’s trade expansionism.

       Per the deportation of students, back home they were simply EJK’ed or salvaged. In fact the son of my editor is still missing for a decade or so now, of course dead. He was snatched by soldiers, post-Marcos years. Honestly, this DOGE clean-up should happen in other countries as well, especially those who received a lot of foreign aid that bred massive corruption, including the Philippines then and Ukraine now. 

       In Corazon Aquino’s years (1986-1991), I was a member of her PCGG (directly under her), tasked to clean-up agencies and prosecute Marcos cronies and recover the family’s ill-gotten wealth. But because the Marcoses’ “money” was already placed and secured elsewhere and they enjoyed superpower coddle, only a fraction of what they stole was recovered. I mean Imelda won her case in New York City, remember? I resigned after a year with PCGG because I didn’t conform with how some officials were “bought.” I also protested USAID, by the way. Aid is quid pro quo: Gimme (foreign corporation) the trade contract, you (government official) get the aid. 🇵🇭☮️🇺🇸

Trade Wars and Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

DURING Donald Trump's first "trade war" with China (2016 onwards), Vietnam and other smaller economies gained. The Philippines and others--with a huge labor force and supply of raw materials--should study how Vietnam did it. With other BRICS economies and non-aligned nations thinking more independently from the U.S./China economic head-butt, this tariff drama will not be this soap operatic. 

       Also because this is Mr Trump, anything that he does will be demonized by the New Left's media. Yet tariff tactics aren't new. Refer to Theodore Roosevelt or LBJ's tariff fight with Germany, and many more. 

       When China entered the WTO in 2001 (after the U.S. paved the way per U.S./China trade pact in 2000), tariff and duties and levies and corporate taxation that the West imposed for centuries have wobbled. The D is telling his voters that he can bring manufacturing back to the U.S. but he also knows he has to modify the playbook. No POTUS can bring America back to their pre-1975 trade surplus unless China and BRICS cease trading with Western allies (of course, that is not gonna happen). 

       Meanwhile, the 8,600+ U.S. companies in China may just expand in India and Indonesia. But Mr Trump can attract more FDIs to the US. Japan’s SoftBank, SK’s Hyundai and Taiwan’s TSMC are early birds. Nippon Steel may still acquire U.S. Steel that Biden blocked. This was China’s trick in the first 10 years after 2001. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

I DON'T think there's an economic panic. This is not that serious. George Soros crashed the Asian economy or currency in the 1990s with his speculative investing brinkmanship. That was also Japan’s “Lost Decade.” But as the region recovered, the Asian Tiger economies (and Tiger Cubs) flourished. Why? 

       We now go back to the Vietnam discussion. And whether we like it or not, China is right here. Note: In Nov 2020, as Biden was celebrating his win, China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies to form the largest trade bloc in history, the RCEP. So however the U.S. tries to bring the tilt back to the West, the East is prepared.

       But as I said, Donald Trump has to fulfill what he promised his minions. At least try to make America great again. The U.S. will never be the same not because China and BRICS balanced the scale but because America is imploding. The wide divide is crashing its own persona. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

Donald Trump and his foreign policy playbook.

Responses to Facebook chats.

DAMN! Donald Trump shakes the glade, indeed! I favor his foreign policy though but I didn't see the tariff quake and aid redo coming. But I see all these new dramas differently. 

  

       First, an impending (or happening?) spike in consumer products is what the world's top consumer market needs. Cut consumerism, uh huh. But we just bought a new 58" flat screen after my cat ruined my room TV and it is cheaper than the one that we bought 2 years ago! My friend and her son and grandchild just came home from a 1-week vacay in Florida. Discounts in their room accommodation? Did she just buy an electric bike with a trailer??? 

       So what tariff hassle are we talking about? Yet 50 out of the 90+ countries hit by Trump tariffs seek a negotiation with the U.S. That is good. That's the gambit. 

       And I want my country, the Philippines, to renegotiate import/export deals and do away with the "aid" quid pro quo that only enhances corruption. But my friends are busier with election-related drama than with the tariff thriller.

OF course China will match the U.S. tariff. They are THE Chinese. They have been haggling and hawing since the Silk Road days. Sure, Mr Trump will get manufacturing back (though not per pre-1975 surplus) but not the 8,600+ American companies in China (who may even expand or cross to India). 

       But The D can lure foreign giants in. The U.S. is still #1 consumer market and marketing showroom with awesome endorsers. Early FDI negotiations are from South Korea's Hyundai, Taiwan's TSMC and Japan's SoftBank. ☮️☮️☮️

RESET the global order but not via wars but via trade which is China's expansionism tactic. Engage China in its own game. But of course Washington stays hot on military brinkmanship. There'll be no drama per shakeup of Defense budget's $840+ receipt but there'll be cuts in NATO share. 

       President Trump is selective who to take out per "enemies" as he prefers to save the taxpayer money that are usually wasted in bombastic military operations. Remember, he took out Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Qasem Soleimani leading to the Doha Accords and the end of the Afghanistan war in his first term.  

       Example: Dare Iran to put a leash on Yemen's Houthis, to stop messing in the Red Sea. Iran will not wage war. Tehran's new moderate leadership wants the Strait of Hormuz unblemished for oil shipments to China, Tehran's top buyer. Iran needs to recover economically. Etc etcetera. ☮️☮️☮️