UKRAINE STORY vis a vis China Narrative, and other ramblings.

NEWS. “Biden Announces More Aid for Ukraine as Group of 7 Powers Meet in Japan.” / “GOP faction decries $113B for Ukraine.” Looks like this war isn’t going to end soon. Meanwhile, flash media did go to work hoisting Volodymyr Zelensky as the star of the recent G7 in Hiroshima, Japan albeit a weeping clown of unbelievable absurdity, pleading for more aid on top of the $150 billion total that Ukraine already got so far. 

       And the West, starring Washington, is still biting–as though Russia’s defeat is in the offing. Worse, Zelensky even “...tried to convince fence sitters like India and Brazil that there is no middle ground.” Volo isn’t aware that both giant economies are buddies of Russia per BRICS? And then Z also went to chastise and push a noncommittal or “quiet” Arab powers for support. Didn’t he know that UAE, Saudi Arabia et al thumbed-down the sanction?  

       But yes the Ukrainian leader, who was embroiled in massive corruption expose before the war, received vows of resolute support and promises of further weapons shipments even as Russian forces claimed to have seized the war-torn city of Bakhmut. And as yet again, while faced with homegrown issues such debt limit debate (resolved now?) and imminent migrant crisis, President Biden changes tone and announces more aid to Kyiv, topped by the much-sought F-16 fighter planes. 🇺🇦☮️🇷🇺

TIME feature: “Zelensky Was the Star of the G7. But the Summit's Focus Remained on China.” Because media choose/s to cast him as some kind of hero, which I have been vehemently disagreeing with from the get go. Kyiv is smothered by high-scale corruption years before Volo sat and he didn’t fix it as he vowed during campaign in 2019. He instead jumped right into the murk wagon. The war’s shudder took the focus out of his filth and now he’s nothing but a “walking, talking doll” pushing for more aid as Russia relentlessly pummels Ukraine, or parts of it. 

       G7 has ideas, of course, why it opts to still okay military handovers to Z. But I don’t think the “goodwill” will carry on, especially that Washington starts to regear its sights again towards Asia or China. Or spending cuts are now on the Oval Office table. 

       Xi Jinping did talk to Zelensky but I am almost certain it was all about trade and economics. End the war. China is BFFs with Russia so for Beijing, Vladimir Putin is a no brainer. They only have to sit and talk. These guys are bros in the `hood. After all, a prolonged war has obvious effect on China’s gargantuan Belt and Road Initiative project and huge FDIs globally. 🇺🇦☮️🇨🇳

G7 is all about how to deal with China and its BRICS buddies, notably Russia and India. But they gotta entertain Zelensky since, believe it or not, at least in the U.S., people (or voters) still favor arming Kyiv some more. But China isn’t dumb. The giant nation has what the West wants, especially in the line of technology, pharmaceuticals,  labor force, and raw materials for “climate” industry. 

       Besides being a major coal producer, China is one of the world's largest producers of gold and the world's largest producer of antimony, natural graphite, aluminum, steel, rare earths, barite, zinc and tungsten; and the third largest producer in the world of iron ore. Add mercury, tin, manganese, molybdenum, vanadium, magnetite, lead, zinc, uranium, and the world's largest hydropower potential. Did I add silicon, which is a much-sought chemical element for semiconductors? Polysilicon that is imperative to solar panels? 

       And China has petroleum and natural gas. Beijing is not even selling its oil though the Dragon is the world’s #6 largest producer, instead as #1 importer, Beijing buys a lot of fuel. What about APIs? Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients. China and India are top 2 producers. Meantime, China has invested in many countries, esp. North Africa and Sub Saharan Africa, for their resources. What the U.S. wants, China may have gotten them already while Washington was so busy with internal politics. 

       These extremely worry the West, not because China will invade Taiwan and flex its military muscle all over the globe. Nope. It’s all economics. 🇺🇦☮️🇨🇳

BACK to Ukraine. New York Times: “GOP faction decries $113B for Ukraine.” Sure, you may accuse me as a lame Republican, which I am not. Maybe I am lame but I am not GOP. Yet I concur, especially with Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) who fumes that Kyiv’s leadership “...thought it was an obligation for every American to pay $10 a month to fund their war.” Anyhow, after the meeting in Poland, Zelensky’s guys thanked the bipartisan U.S. delegation for the additional aid a.k.a. F-16 fighter jets to help in the war against Russia. 

       Meanwhile, in other News: “The Latest Rift Among Ukraine’s Allies Is Whether to Send F-16s.” And adds: “The United States is resisting a European push for the powerful fighters. But will it relent, as it did before with tanks, rocket launchers and air defense missiles?” But the latest news after recent U.S. lawmakers meeting with Kyiv reps in Poland is likely a green light. Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Block costs $64 million. Others depend on kind and make: From $12 million to $35 million, to as high as $108 million.

       Remember, last year, U.S. Congress signed a $113 billion aid to Ukraine. And in February 2022, the State Department approved the sale of 12 F-16 fighter jets with an estimated cost of $4.21 billion — a deal that also included radios, targeting pods and associated munitions components like guided missile tail kits. F-16s et al to Kyiv is not a “sale” though. Those are handouts. Paid for by taxpayers. 🇺🇦☮️🇷🇺

President Joe Biden, 80 years old, for a Second Term?

NEWS: “Biden Should Take Voters’ Concerns About Age Seriously.” New York Times Editorial Board adds: “The president has not taken advantage of the chance to ease voters’ concerns by engaging regularly with the public.”

REGARDLESS of President Biden’s failures, from 2021 to current days, age could be a serious issue, especially that the old person concerned is the Chief Executive of the world’s most powerful nation. Cognitive decline may begin after midlife, but most often occurs at higher ages or 70 or higher. So at 80 this year, Biden is really old. Donald Trump, who could be Joe’s Republican rival next year, is 4 years younger, but that isn’t young, either. 

       Both of them would do fine hangin’ with Willie Nelson, 90, if Willie could recognize them, that is. Keith Richards, 79, would be a better bet. 

      Seriously though, Biden and Trump are the oldest U.S. presidents ever. At #3 is Ronald Reagan who took office at age 69 and left White House at 77. Next: William Henry Harrison, 68 years old, Potus in 1841. But sadly Mr Harrison died just 31 days into the job, marking the shortest presidency in the country’s history. Didn’t really matter if he was old or young. The 5th oldest American prez in office was James Buchanan, 65 years old when he took office in 1857, just a few years before the Civil War. He did not seek reelection. Abraham Lincoln succeeded him in 1860.

       Wondering who was the youngest commander in chief of the United States at the  time of their election? John F. Kennedy, 43. He didn’t finish his term. If he did and, most likely won again? He would have been “only” 50 by then. 👴🗽👴

YOU may ask, so what if President Biden is “that” old? Yet at 80 today or 84, if he wins next year and leaves the Oval Office in 2028, he’ll be alongside the “age” company of Fidel Castro, who quit the Cuban political pedestal at age 82. (He ruled from 1959 to 2008; died in 2016, age 90.) Mao Zedong was also along that AARP row. Mao ended his reign as Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party at age 82, the day he died (1976). 

       Fidel and Mao were bosschiefs though a lot longer than any U.S. president. Senor Castro served for 49 years; Mao, 22 years. (Almost like Ferdinand Marcos Sr. of the Philippines, 20 years!) Meanwhile, the longest serving Potus was Franklin D. Roosevelt, 12 years, but he was President for four terms. He died relatively “young” though at 63. 

       For my trivia fix, who is the oldest currently serving head of state? Paul Biya Cameroon, 90 years old. Fact is, there’s a lot more guys who were older than Biden or Trump who sat at the center of leadership table, such as Mark Eyskens, Prime Minister of Belgium in 1981, who was 90. Or H. D. Deve Gowda, PM of India for a year ( 1996-1997), and Hüsamettin Cindoruk, Acting President of Turkey in 1993. They were 89 year old leaders. And more on that “aching back” club. 

       Anyhow, who is the oldest living former state leader? Khamtai Siphandone of Laos, 99 years old. 👴🗽👴

SO much for the age issue, okay? Old or young, I don’t think President Joe Biden should opt for reelection. For the sake of the Democratic Party, the United States of America and its 331.9 million people, and the global community. 

       The clear as sun failures of Joe Biden? Immigration chaos, ballooning debt, inflation murk. Lack, weak or inept foreign policy strategy that has crippled Washington’s  power and influence on the world stage. Etc etcetera. There are more.

       A Gen Z friend told me this: “At the start of his presidency, Biden halted oil and natural gas leases on public lands in an effort to curb carbon emissions and then a year or so later, allowed an oil company to drill in Alaska.” 

       Latest from New York Times: “Biden Faces Bleak Approval Numbers as He Starts Re-election Campaign.” And adds: “A Washington Post/ABC News poll shows challenges for President Biden and a disconnect between what Americans want and the options they have. 👴🗽👴

Sudan’s SOS and how the world and Washington respond.

NEWS: “U.S. Positioning Troops for Evacuation of American Embassy in Sudan.” / “Sudan’s Warring Generals Agree to Weeklong Truce, Says South Sudan.” News adds: “The battle has sent 100,000 refugees fleeing across borders. Now, neighboring South Sudan says both sides have agreed to name representatives to peace talks, but neither side has publicly confirmed.” 

THE Sudanese conflict is an old flaming tempest that hasn’t really subsided. Long before the Second Sudanese Civil War from 1983 to 2005 between the central Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army, conflicts punctuated life in this impoverished Northeast African nation of 49 million. Violation of the agreement forged in Addis Ababa Accords and incorporated in the Constitution of Sudan in 1972 led to the second civil war. A number of mutinies took place in 1974, 1975, and 1976 that claimed thousands of lives. 

       The First Sudanese Civil War was a conflict from 1955 to 1972 between the northern part of Sudan and the southern Sudan region. Decades of struggle by the mainly Christian and Animist south against rule by the Arab Muslim north cut a long swath of cold darkness in the country. Until Sudan split into two in 2011, Sudan and South Sudan. Yet bloody hostilities didn’t stop. 

       At the core of the conflict lies a power struggle between Sudan's political center in Khartoum and its southern and western peripheries. From 2003, genocide or systematic killing of ethnic Darfuri people has occurred in Western Sudan.

       You may google the rest. 🇸🇩☮️🇸🇩

FOR years, Darfur has been a perennial theme in many speeches of U.S. presidents, notably Barack Obama in the duration of his terms from 2009 to 2017. Yet nothing has been done compared with Washington forwarded in other countries or regions. Since 2005 the U.S. government has contributed upwards of $8 billion in humanitarian aid as food aid, health care provisions, water, sanitation, and hygiene. They have also given money towards nutrition, agriculture, protection, and economic recovery programs. We are talking about almost two decades of “help.” 

       Before the 2000s, however, foreign aid givers handed Sudan close to $270 million between 1977–1981 and were Sudan's largest source of foreign aid by 1984. In current money, that’d be around $810 million? Based on OECD data, the U.S. has provided one-third of total aid to Sudan between 2000 and 2009, making it the largest donor for most of these years. The European Union institutions, provided 13.4 percent of aid during the same period.

       USAID's budget for Sudan in 1984: $25 million in development assistance and $50 million to finance the sale of agricultural products. I don’t know which were “aid” and which were “loans.” When Sudan failed to repay loans in 1985, the U.S. ceased all non-food aid.

       However, the U.S. didn’t stop giving help. For example, "Operation Lifeline Sudan" of 1989 delivered 100,000 metric tons of food into both government and in areas held by the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), averting widespread starvation. In 1991, the U.S. made large donations to alleviate food shortages caused by a two-year drought.

      Those were years ago before 21st century strode in and situations worsened. 🇸🇩☮️🇸🇩

FOR fiscal years 2005–2006, the U.S. committed almost $2.6 billion to Sudan for humanitarian assistance and peacekeeping in Darfur. Fast forward to 2022: Washington has provided a “mere” $371 million in humanitarian assistance to Sudan. Yet Washington has tossed $75 billion to Ukraine in just 1 year. Actually, the U.S. Congress approved $113 billion of Ukraine aid late last year. 

       The European Union is no different. E.U. or Europe per se has sent €19.7 billion to support Ukraine. This year to Sudan? €73 million. Between 2000 to 2009, Arab country governments, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates, made two large contributions to Sudan: $146.4 million in 2000 and $81.8 million in 2008. 

       What  about China? Sudan has acquired the largest share of aid allocated to Africa at the China-Africa Cooperation summit in 2018, where $60 billion was pledged "to achieve development in the African countries.” 

During the forum, China wrote off Khartoum's debts accrued up to 2015, totalling $10 billion. In addition, Chinese oil companies pledged to invest in the gas, minerals and oil pipelines from South Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. 🇸🇩☮️🇸🇩

MEANWHILE, on President Biden’s order, U.S. forces evacuated just under 100 American staff of the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum on the 3rd week of April. New York Times: “How U.S. Efforts to Guide Sudan to Democracy Ended in War.” And adds: “Critics say the Biden administration and its partners were naïve about the intentions of two rival generals and failed to empower civilian leaders.” 

       Let’s backtrack a bit. In early 2021, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin signed a memorandum of understanding with Sudanese Acting Finance Minister Heba Mohamed Ali, in order to clear Sudan's arrears with the World Bank, and to allow their access to more than $1 billion in annual lending.

       The quid pro quo: In March on the same year, Sudanese officials welcomed the missile guided destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill at Port Sudan, the first time in decades that the U.S. naval forces had visited the country.

       Sudan’s naval forces chief, Alnairi Hassan, praised the move. Then boom. In October, the Sudanese military, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan overthrew the government and detained Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. Washington condemned the coup, called for Hamdok's release and suspended $700 million in aid to Sudan. Hamdok was reinstated as Prime Minister on November 21; the move was welcomed by the United States.

       This is where we are now. Still want to talk about Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine? End the war with Russia. Pressure Z to submit an accounting of aid tossed at him. Then let’s go fix Sudan. Of course, China is always watching or awaiting a U.S. move. 🇸🇩☮️🇸🇩