South China Sea. And Stuff.

Response to: “South China Sea issue, a global concern, says Japan.” 

OF course, the South China Sea is a global concern. Always is. Trillion$ worth of commercial/maritime shipping passed through it, for starters. These days as trade works in/around China, India, Japan, South Korea et al, SCS could be more valuable globally than the Persian Gulf, Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, or Baltic Sea. 

       Ergo, if a Gaza/Ukraine level war explodes in South China Sea, who benefits? The U.S. and Europe (or E.U.) or G7. Who gets derailed? China and India or BRICS. (The "odd man out" in both? Japan, who is also a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. 

       The RCEP free trade agreement gathers 15 Asia-Pacific nations, led by China and including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Singapore. These nations account for about 30 percent of the world's population and 30 percent of global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc in history. 

       Obviously, or clearly, we should know what powers benefit per current wars in Gaza (think reactivation of "arms for oil" in West/Middle East bilateral deals, think disruption of economic activities of new BRICS members from the region) and Ukraine (think NATO expansion, think natural gas, think Baltic Sea).    

      This neverending drama in South China Sea stays as that, drama. But the drama ups U.S. military aid mojo in the region. Already, Japan and South Korea are #1 and #3 top hosts of U.S. troops overseas. 

       However, per obvious reasons, China will not bite the Joe Biden dare. Potus' current rat trap is Taiwan but Taiwan's top trade partner is China, its kin. Stupid to fight bro. If ever China responds militarily? It would be via North Korea. Pyongyang can easily paralyze Asia by damaging nuclear plants in SK and Japan, while targeting U.S. military there. 

       Yet all Kim Jong-un does is counter bullying the West. Of course. In all, if war does indeed happen? Who get hit? Asians. America and Europe stay relatively safe and comfortable. China is formidable as a Wall (think Boxer Rebellion of yore as historical basis).

       However, Beijing or CCP isn't that dumb to wage war in Asia, with its investments scattered all over the region and its cultural bloodline imprinted all over. ☮️☮️☮️

Visual: U.S. Naval Institute.

GAZA DISCUSSION.

Just talking about stuff. Response friends’ post on Facebook, slightly edited. 

THE usual words of many ex-soldiers or current soldiers in the U.S. when they talk of their “tour of duty” in war: "We fought in (Afghanistan etcetera) to keep Americans safe." They carry the valiant declaration as "badge of honor." They really believe those words deeply. By pummeling other countries to destruction and deaths, they “protect” America. When you tell them that they actually protect American corporations' interests and geopolitical narcissism (which go hand in hand), they'd get angry. Never in their mind as well that for every civilian abroad that they take out, another prospective terrorist is recruited, and that would endanger Americans more.

       Many soldiers that I know came home with PTSD, many are homeless drunks and incoherent junkies, walking-dead in denial, rotting in guilt. Yet Washington (and the European Union) never see/s all these. Western powers continue to waste taxpayer money on military aid and "defense" budget so its giant 1 Percent corporations will continue to rule the world. (Which, of course, they did for centuries till the 21st.) 

FOR a start, per Ukraine war (which President Joe Biden goaded) the U.S. is now #1 natural gas exporter. It was Russia before the invasion in February 2022. Thing is, I believe, Russia doesn't really care if it is #2 or #3 as long as BRICS bros China and India buy from Gazprom Moscow. And so American energy giantsnow run Kyiv's Naftogaz as pawned by Volodymyr Zelensky.

       Meanwhile, I incessantly wondered out loud: What power really pushed Oct 7 to happen? Before that day, Mideast powers Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and UAE (+ Ethiopia and Argentina) were set to join BRICS. Saudi Arabia and Iran shook hands on China's intercession. Syria was taken back by the Arab League. And Israel was set to sit with Saudi Arabia to discuss peace. 

       In fact, Israel even ignored Mr Biden's call to send arms or military aid to Ukraine. Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah et al are known Iran "foot soldiers" so it's no brainer. Rail Iran, war is back. “Arms for oil" has always been the crux of the West’s bilateral deals with oil-rich Arab nations since discovery of oil in the desert in the 1940s (and Israel's birth in 1948). But since the Arab Spring of 2011, Arab nations have been wanting to run their life and trade with less Washington and Brussels interference. Hence "arms for oil" lost traction. Should be. 

       This now-super rich region of MENA has been diversifying business so war isn't needed. Golf in Riyadh, fashion shows in Abu Dhabi, car races in Dubai, concerts in Qatar etc etcetera. Then war happened. President Biden though was unsuccessful in goading China over Taiwan in South China Sea but you know that story isn't done yet. ☮️☮️☮️

Current Geopolitical Struggles.

New York Times: “A Titanic Geopolitical Struggle Is Underway.” Although I do not see a Third World War as others tend to blabber, an intense contest is hot and high brought by realignments in the geopolitical power grid. Response to U.S. call to sanction Russia per Ukraine invasion offered hint. Except for the West, all others snubbed the military aid wagon trail. Then comes Israel’s Gaza annihilation, which engages not really the terror groups but the Arab League. 

       Before the Oct 7 Hamas attack of Israel, realignment was already up. China brokered a Saudi Arabia/Iran fist-bump. Syria returned to the Arab League. The bigger jolt to the West: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined mighty China, Russia and India in the BRICS bloc. Suddenly, G7’s formidable fort starts to wobble. Yet the real contest is economics, not military. 

THE West: G7 or Group of Seven (G7): Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Economics, the U.S. and Europe control the I.M.F. and World Bank. <>The East: BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa + new members Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia. China heads the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 

       WEST. Military collective NATO is basically Europe or G7 sans Japan, though Japan hosts the 3rd largest number of U.S. troops abroad. 

       EAST, essentially trade based. China’s four state-owned banks are the largest banks in the world: Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. China also presides over the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. RCEP is The largest trade bloc in history, so far. BRICS’ Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader of the Arab League, with 22 member-countries. ☮️☮️☮️

Ramble on: More on Chinese and Stuff.

Response to a friend post on Facebook, slightly edited. 

AFTER the trade pact of 2000, U.S. corporations got comfortable sitting on beds of dollars as the “super inexpensive” albeit massive 24/7 Chinese labor force (over 700 million that time) manufactured stuff for them as Americans consumers kept on buying. 

       Anyhow, while billionaires' total wealth fell by 6 percent from 2000 to 2010 as a result of the Great Recession, it shot up by 160 percent ($2.57 trillion) from 2010 to March 2021. Somewhere from 2001 to 2010, the all-time record for number of U.S. billionaires was 1,125. As of 2023, there are a mere 735 billionaires in the U.S. Part of the reason is the Chinese got richer as well (969 billionaires as of 2023!) as did the Arabs, South Koreans, Russians, Japanese, Germans, Indians etcetera. 

And so American business wealth decreased although U.S. millionaires are more plentiful—almost 22 million. In 1990, there were “only” 63,642 millionaires in the United States. 

MEANWHILE, gradually, the Chinese knew what products Americans loved to spend most on, such as drugs/pharmaceuticals, cars, and electronics. Hence, the Chinese got better knowledge of the raw materials or pertinent ingredients/minerals for those stuff, which the Chinese mainland had plenty of. (BRICS partners Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa got a lot of those, too.)

       So quietly as the Chinese got richer, they put time and money (re)studying those raw materials and as the U.S. craved for more (trade deficit continued to spike), Chinese upped their cost–while they dangled the new, rehashed and repurposed raw materials/APIs as in the global market. Through the years, the Chinese got better knowledge of U.S./Western-styled capitalism (and consumer mojo) and so now they spread out globally. They bought hectares and acres of land to build factories in other countries where they could use those raw materials to their liking and control prices, of course.

       Take note: Most Chinese corporations (except big tech but including banks) are state-owned. 

SURE, if others like U.S. giants want more raw materials, they are more expensive now compared with a few years after 2000, or after the defining U.S./China trade pact signed by Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin. Example: Silicon. Smart as they are, they sold most of the silicon to Taiwan, a people who are essentially their kin in business but (probably still) a rival in politics. (Usually, for the Chinese per se, trade wins.) 

       Now the U.S. is pissed. Instead of sitting down to haggle or negotiate costs with the Chinese, they goad a war to shake things up. (Historically, refer to late-19th century’s Boxer Rebellion in China or Commodore Matthew Perry’s “gunboat diplomacy” vs old Japan in 1853.) Also, Washington failed to convince others that the Chinese stole intellectual property of many products when the fact is, the Chinese reworked the raw materials to make better products for the global market per WTO. Example is silicon wafer from quartz, mica, and talc. Blahblahblah. 

      History keeps on repeating itself. Though a reset is needed? I don’t think so. But that’d be another subject to ponder and discuss. 🇨🇳🤌🇺🇸

President Joe Biden. And Stuff.

Previously posted on my Facebook page.

Yahoo Finance: “Warning signs for Biden: Economy.” Like other polls, a new Yahoo-Finance Ipsos survey found broad dissatisfaction with Biden on the economy. Some 46 percent of respondents said Biden’s policies have hurt them, consistent with other polls showing public thumbs-down of Biden’s handling of the economy, less than 40 percent. Rising costs of basic needs can’t be denied so the 17 percent who said Joe’s policies helped them are hardcores in denial. 🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “As Black Voters Drift to Trump, Biden’s Allies Say They Have Work to Do.” And adds: “New York Times/Siena College polling painted a worrisome picture of the president’s standing with a crucial constituency. Democratic strategists warned that the erosion could threaten his re-election.” Best recourse for the Democratic Party? Convince Joe Biden to forgo another shot at White House pedestal. That’d be regardless who runs against him next year. Meanwhile, per Rolling Stone: “RFK Jr. Beating Biden and Trump Among Young Voters in Key States: Poll.” 🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “Biden Confronts the Limits of U.S. Leverage in Two Conflicts.” And adds: “President Biden’s influence over Israel and Ukraine seems far more constrained than expected, given his central role as the supplier of arms and intelligence.” In other words, his foreign policy playbook is flawed, damaged, or inept. Or all of those. All started with the haphazard U.S. military evacuation in Afghanistan in 2021, add the failed goading of China/Taiwan conflict. 🏢🏬🏢

New York Times: “Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds.” / Rolling Stone: “Biden Bleeds Younger Voters, Now Trails Trump in Swing States, New Polls Find.” Battleground states Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which voted for Biden in 2020, now say they trust Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Joe’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying. 🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “A Snapshot of Support for Palestinians Across America.” / Time: Protest Marches Across the Globe Call for a Gaza Ceasefire.” / Rolling Stone: “Massive D.C. Ceasefire Protest Directs Its Rage at Biden.” Some rabid pro-Israeli friends must understand that the protests aren’t condonement of Hamas terrorism. They are about cessation of Israeli military strikes for the welfare of innocent Palestinians. At least get them out of the line of fire. 

       NY Times adds: “Marches in Washington, D.C., Ohio, Utah and California, with tens of thousands of protesters, reflect the many different groups calling for a cease-fire and lifting of the siege in Gaza.” 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

Rolling Stone: “Young Activists to Biden: Change Course on Gaza - or Lose in 2024.” The threat is real, regardless of party affiliation. Gen Z or the young per are not necessarily Democrat. Some 41 million members of Gen Z will be eligible to vote in 2024’s presidential election. As many as 7 million to 9 million more members of the racially and culturally diverse Gen Z cast ballots in 2024 than they did in 2020. And then there’s Joe Biden’s murky economic scorecard. 

       For the first time, Gen Z and Millennials combined could account for as many votes next year as the Baby Boomers and their elders—the groups that have made up a majority of voters for decades. 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

New York Times: “Will the Middle East War Change Voters’ Views of Biden?” Strategists warn, however, that his re-election may depend more on domestic issues like the economy. President Biden’s overall approval rating dropped to 37 percent in the latest poll. Bleak sign/s as he sets to run for reelection next year. Former President Donald Trump is the runaway favorite for the GOP presidential nomination. Per ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump beats Biden, 51 to 42. 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

On The Subject of Israel and Hamas/Gaza & Palestine.

An invasion fueled by revenge isn't going to erase Hamas off the face of the Gulf's burning earth. While it is imperative to dig in who really, actually funded the Oct 7 attack, the truth may not come out at all. Iran is the immediate dartboard trajectory but following the death of IRDC/Quds chief General Qasem Soleimani ni 2020, many doubt Tehran’s role in the carnage that killed 1,400 Israelis. That’d be due to recent peace initiatives in the region. 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

BACKGROUNDER, Iran: As commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Soleimani was considered as the second-most powerful person in Iran, next to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei.

       Although he cooperated with U.S. forces in Afghanistan to fight the Taliban following 9/11, Soleimani also provided extensive assistance to Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as the Houthis in Yemen. The General also coordinated and assisted Kurdish Peshmerga and Shia militia forces in Iraq and helped augment Bashar al-Assad’s leadership in Syria.

       Soleimani was designated as a terrorist by the United States in 2005. He was assassinated via an American drone strike on 3 January 2020 in Baghdad. The strike was expectedly condemned by the Iranian government. Hours after his burial on 7 January 2020, the Iranian military launched missiles against U.S. military bases in Iraq; while there were no deaths in the second attack, the Pentagon reported that 110 American troops were wounded in the strikes. 

       General Qasem Soleimani’s successor as commander of the Quds Force of the IRGC is Esmail Qaani. Prior to his appointment, Qaani was most famous for recruiting the Liwa Fatemiyoun and Liwa Zainebiyoun Shia fighters operating in Syria. 

PERTINENT EVENTS this year or prior to the Oct 7 Hamas attack in Israel: 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

[ ] The Arab League welcomed Syria back into the bloc in May. The Arab League was formed in 1945, initially with six members: Egypt, Iraq, Transjordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Currently, the League has 22 Arab member-countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

       The roots of the Arab–Israeli conflict have been attributed to the support by Arab League member countries for the Palestinians, a fellow League member, in the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict; this in turn has been attributed to the simultaneous rise of Zionism and Arab nationalism towards the end of the 19th century. 

[ ] China surprised the world by brokering relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, in March. Note that China is Iran’s top oil buyer. Meanwhile, China and Saudi Arabia are close and strategic allies and have been increasing cooperation in the energy and financial sectors, the Belt and Road Initiative, and have signed numerous deals across several areas.

[ ] Saudi Arabia has suspended talks on potentially normalizing ties with Israel amid the war raging between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

      The Gulf kingdom has never recognized Israel and did not join the 2020 US-brokered Abraham Accords that saw its neighbors Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates as well as Morocco establish formal ties with Israel. President Biden has been pushing hard in recent months for Saudi Arabia to take the same step.

[ ] Middle East powers Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and the UAE, as well as Argentina and Ethiopia are set to join BRICS in January 2024. BRICS is a grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. In 2001, economists predicted that these fast-growing economies would collectively dominate the global economy by 2050. 

MY THOUGHTS, as previously posted on my Facebook page. 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

New York Times: At first, “Hezbollah Hesitates as Israel Strikes Gaza.” And then the following day, per Associated Press: “Hezbollah leader threatens escalation as Netanyahu rules out cease-fire in Gaza.” Anyhow, the group is torn between maintaining its credibility as “a defender of the Palestinians, and its hesitation to drag Lebanon into a war. Disturbing. What power enabled Hamas to strike? Was it Iran? While peace efforts are being worked out in the Gulf, and Tehran part of the peace process? 

       Saudi Arabia and Iran shook hands in March, as both are set to formally join BRICS in January. Largest known benefactor of Hezbollah and Hamas: Iran. But that was when Quds chief Gen. Qasem Soleimani was still alive. News adds: “Hezbollah leader threatens escalation in cross-border fighting with Israel, while Netanyahu rules out cease-fire until Hamas frees hostages.” Netanyahu believes he will be able to save the hostages via continued strikes. 

Time: “Yemen's Houthi Rebels Claim Ballistic Attacks on Israel, Raising Fear of Wider Conflict.” Here come the Houthis. And so Iran is again tossed into the picture. Tehran has long sponsored the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah–all enemies of Israel. Top trainer of the Houthis was Qasem Soleimani, chief of the dreaded Quds Force of the IRGC. But the General was taken out by a U.S. drone in early 2020. So what power currently runs the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah? 

Associated Press: “Opposition mounts in Arab countries that normalized relations with Israel.” Middle East countries that have normalized relations with Israel are now under public pressure to cut those ties. This: Saudi Arabia and Israel were in talks prior to the Oct 7 attack. Saudi Arabia, a new BRICS member, is de facto leader of the Arab League. Meanwhile, as global criticism of strikers heightens, the U.S. presses Israel for a “pause” in military operations so aid reaches Gaza. 

Associated Press: “US consumers keep spending despite high prices and their own gloomy outlook.” Americans expressed bitter sentiments in opinion polls per Joe Biden’s handling of the economy. Yet consumer spending is high. Economics: Consumption spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy on average, so as the U.S. consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. But gasoline prices threaten to spike again as the Israel/Hamas war accelerates. 

Associated Press: “House approves $14.5 billion in assistance for Israel.” In 1999, the U.S. agreed to provide Israel with at least $2.67 billion in military aid annually, which is now at $3.8 billion. That’s how powerful the Israel Lobby is in Washington. Meanwhile, since the war began, the U.S. Congress has directed more than $75 billion to Ukraine, part of a $113 billion package. So much taxpayer money for mostly military firepower over humanitarian rescue. 

       Also. Associated Press: “Gaza Health Ministry says more than 9,000 Palestinians, including 3,760 who are under 18, have been killed in the war.” So billions$ for Israel have been prioritized. What about aid to Palestinian victims? Add info: Since World War II, Israel received the most U.S. aid, $312.5 billion as of 2021. 

New York Times: “Middle East War Could Cause Oil Price Shock, World Bank Warns.” And adds: “A new report outlined how a major escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas could fuel a new bout of inflation.” Oil could soar to a record high of $150 if the Israel-Hamas war doesn’t subside soon. As we speak, it is already around $96 per barrel following the outbreak. Before this latest conflagration, the global price was around $88 a barrel. No respite, indeed. 

Time’s Ian Bremmer: “The Gaza Invasion Will Not Make Israel Safer.” Beyond the shudder of the Israel/Hamas tempest in Gaza, invasion per se of a country to excise revenge, “safeguard democracy,” or what-have-they, only stokes the fire of hate into larger conflagration. To end the Gaza crisis, the only solution is not the “two-state solution.” Give back the Palestinians the areas that were taken from them in 1967. The only way that will make Israel and Palestine safer. 

New York Times: “Israel Faces Hostage Dilemma in Gaza.” And adds: “The country has said there are two main goals in the war: Destroy Hamas and free the hostages held in Gaza. But are those goals compatible?” Already, before the Oct 7 attack, Tel Aviv leadership was in shambles. Meanwhile, per The Guardian, Israel’s ex-military leaders told PM Benjamin Natanyahu to “quit now,” blaming him for the Hamas incursion as they question his response to the carnage. 

Yahoo News: “Israel dismisses Gaza refugee camp bombing as `tragedy of war.’” The assault on the densely populated Jabaliya refugee camp caused many casualties, says reports. “Tragedy of war” is obviously “collateral damage.” Given, horror of war. Yet I ask: What about intel? The target of revenge strike is Hamas. Sure, they hide in public enclaves, that is a war tactic. But then, bomb a refugee camp? The strategy is bloody gung-ho. No mind for human lives. War. 

       Many would counter that the previous Hamas attack killed 1.400 innocent Israelis. So to avenge the dead, excise damage as well to Palestinian public? In a much greater damage, doesn’t this speak of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

☮️☮️☮️

PALESTINE, a state in Western Asia; Mandatory Palestine, a geopolitical entity then under the British from 1920 to 1948; Palestinian territories or West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip, areas occupied by Israel since 1967; Palestinian enclaves, those designated for Palestinians per U.S. and Israeli-led proposals. Palestine is the size of tiny Delaware, yet does it really exist? Can’t the 5 million Palestinians live in peace in a place they can call home?

       Population of Delaware is 1 million+. Palestine is 5 million. Yet they share almost equal geographical size. In other words, the "country" is crowded, densely populated. Imagine, where would the Palestinians flee in case of war? Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. Or they'd stay--in fear, hunger, and cold. Yet escaping to those countries isn't that simple. Regional politics sets in.  🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸