Trade Wars and Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

DURING Donald Trump's first "trade war" with China (2016 onwards), Vietnam and other smaller economies gained. The Philippines and others--with a huge labor force and supply of raw materials--should study how Vietnam did it. With other BRICS economies and non-aligned nations thinking more independently from the U.S./China economic head-butt, this tariff drama will not be this soap operatic. 

       Also because this is Mr Trump, anything that he does will be demonized by the New Left's media. Yet tariff tactics aren't new. Refer to Theodore Roosevelt or LBJ's tariff fight with Germany, and many more. 

       When China entered the WTO in 2001 (after the U.S. paved the way per U.S./China trade pact in 2000), tariff and duties and levies and corporate taxation that the West imposed for centuries have wobbled. The D is telling his voters that he can bring manufacturing back to the U.S. but he also knows he has to modify the playbook. No POTUS can bring America back to their pre-1975 trade surplus unless China and BRICS cease trading with Western allies (of course, that is not gonna happen). 

       Meanwhile, the 8,600+ U.S. companies in China may just expand in India and Indonesia. But Mr Trump can attract more FDIs to the US. Japan’s SoftBank, SK’s Hyundai and Taiwan’s TSMC are early birds. Nippon Steel may still acquire U.S. Steel that Biden blocked. This was China’s trick in the first 10 years after 2001. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

I DON'T think there's an economic panic. This is not that serious. George Soros crashed the Asian economy or currency in the 1990s with his speculative investing brinkmanship. That was also Japan’s “Lost Decade.” But as the region recovered, the Asian Tiger economies (and Tiger Cubs) flourished. Why? 

       We now go back to the Vietnam discussion. And whether we like it or not, China is right here. Note: In Nov 2020, as Biden was celebrating his win, China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies to form the largest trade bloc in history, the RCEP. So however the U.S. tries to bring the tilt back to the West, the East is prepared.

       But as I said, Donald Trump has to fulfill what he promised his minions. At least try to make America great again. The U.S. will never be the same not because China and BRICS balanced the scale but because America is imploding. The wide divide is crashing its own persona. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳