President Biden’s Foreign Policy Chess Game.

BAFFLING. But what do I know, right? The same week or so after President Biden approved the delivery of cluster munitions to Ukraine (as part of a new $800 million military aid package) and ahead of the Vilnius (Lithuania) NATO meeting, he also said Ukraine is not ready for NATO membership–while war with Russia is ongoing. 

       A cluster munition is a form of air-dropped or ground-launched explosive weapon that ejects smaller submunitions, and designed to kill personnel–and civilians–and destroy vehicles and structures. The move would easily invite outrage from some allies and humanitarian groups that have long opposed cluster bombs. 

       But Mr Biden appears to be confident that he’s doing the right moves. At least, on that particular moment–till he changes tone again, I guess. 

       Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is all over the news cool and sweet in photo-ops with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seemingly certain that Turkey will okay Sweden’s entry into the military alliance. With a smirk, I say okay. Would that be a trade-off for a thumbs-down on Ukraine? The other new applicant Finland was accepted in April. At least Stockholm and Helsinki are not Eastern Europe. 

       Boris Yeltsin reiterated in 1991, as the Warsaw Pact ended with the demise of the USSR, a NATO expansion in Russia’s region would be dangerous. Yeltsin’s successors onto Vladimir Putin stood with that word even as NATO continued to expand. Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic became NATO members in 1999, and so on and so forth. 

       Would the rejection (for now) of Ukraine please Vladimir Putin and so he’d probably sit and a peace truce could ensue? Let’s wait and see. ☮️☮️☮️

ANYHOW, allow me to figure out President Biden’s chess moves. Following State Secretary Antony Blinken’s visit to China last month to patch things up or ease tensions (you know, the Taiwan drama and all that stuff), Joe wobbled the table by branding Xi Jinping a dictator. Worse, as Treasury chief Janet Yellen prepared to fly to Beijing, a U.S. travel advisory asks Americans to reconsider travel to China due to “...enforcement of exit bans and the risk of wrongful detention.” I mean, Ms Yellen was about to go there? 

       Baffling and confounding.

       While Janet Yellin sat in Beijing with CCP officials to obviously work things out, President Biden was in the U.K. to confer with PM Rishi Sunak to sell Washington’s position (whatever that’d be per July 2023) on Ukraine War. Sunak’s position has always been neither here or there, or simply contradictory. He reiterated the UK’s “longstanding position” on NATO membership for Ukraine, wholeheartedly backing Kyiv's bid, but blurry on military aid to the country. But he also told Biden UK will stand by cluster bomb ban.

       Meantime in May, Germany's Olaf Scholz and Berlin’s leadership okayed an additional military aid worth more than $3 billion to Ukraine, regardless of the fact that the E.U. powerhouse hasn’t really stopped buying fuel from Moscow as the region’s top importer, even after Feb 2022. ☮️☮️☮️

AND so as Janet Yellen discussed trade and politics with the Chinese, her President was in Europe pushing stuff that’d certainly irritate the CCP. Not only that Russia is China’s BFF and BRICS partner. China doesn’t need this war. Per 2020 record, Beijing and its subsidiaries lent $1.5 trillion in direct loans and trade credits to more than 150 countries around the globe. The Covid pandemic stalled repayments and now the war. 

        And then there’s India, also with BRICS, whose surging economy could plummet if hostilities don’t stop. Doesn’t the U.S. need India? Narendra Modi may just do a fake fist-bump with Joe Biden a-la MBS of Saudi Arabia. 

        President Biden's playbook isn't a diversion from past hawkish policies but his chess game is a bit whacked. He lost the oil sheikhs of Riyadh to Moscow, significant Latin American leaders snubbed his Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in June last year, China got Africa per trade, with the exception of the Philippines (Marcos Jr. got quid pro quo to deliver to Washington), Asia is mostly “diplomatically nice” to the U.S., and now Mexico’s Andres Manuel Obrador upped his trade leverage by agreeing to stop migrants from reaching the border. Etc etcetera. Biden lost Taiwan, for sure, reason why his top economic negotiator is in Beijing. 

       Yup, this is Washington’s playbook at this juncture. President Joe Biden’s version. ☮️☮️☮️