BRICS and China. And Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

WITH BRICS expanding while it also/already included massive markets India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, China is sure to hold on to its deposits of pertinent minerals to counter Mr Trump's tariff spikes. The US is world's #1 consumer market but with prices going up, buying behavior will change. Yet we know The D is pushing pieces on the chess table as gambits and variations, hoping to break the Chinese. But the CCP has the trade leverage and may even lure US allies to the table, with loan/investment sweeteners. 

       Mr Trump is also hoping for more FDIs but I don't think he (or any POTUS) can convince US giants to leave China; they may even expand to India and Indonesia. Bottomline, Trump tries to stock up chips leading to the stalled second phase of his trade pact with Xi Jinping. First phase was in January 2020. He hoped to continue the negotiations but he lost the 2020 election and Joe Biden's China playbook was different, totally hawkish (dare China to armed hostilities in South China Sea via Taiwan, which of course didn't work). 

       In just 4 years, China firmed up its economic clout: RCEP was formed in Nov 2020, right after Trump's loss. 14 Asia Pacific economies on Beijing's side. Then before the Gaza war, UAE, Egypt, Iran (+ Indonesia and Ethiopia) joined BRICS. Of course, China brokered the Saudi Arabia and Iran handshake before the war. Today: Trump's focus is wobbling. He overshot his expectations of (easily) ending the Ukraine and ME wars. Not the way it was in 2016. These wars are taxing him out, losing more trade chips. But let's see 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

FB Friend: “I seriously doubt we are ever going to see any upside to what D is doing, looking more and more like a loser's hand. He is steering the race car into a 10 car smash up.”

DONALD Trump knows that his playbook isn't going to work. Joe Biden's hawkish playbook didn't work as well. I don't think any other China policy will ever work for the US, or any other POTUS can fix this or bring manufacturing back to the US, due to several reasons. The only way is to sit with the Chinese and find a common ground, but they have the leverage. 

       The D is simply stocking up chips for the 2nd phase of his trade pact with China, which got stalled and messed up when Mr Biden took over. (The 1st phase took place in January 2020.) In Biden's time, China "went to work" as the US busied itself with two wars and internal Left vs. Right caterwauling. They did that during the Cold War; they bought lands NSEW of the globe to prime the Dragon up for its trade expansionism. 

       The last time that the U.S. had a trade surplus was in 1975, so they know what they were doing or planning. Anyhow, Mr Trump is showing his loyal minions that he is doing something per his campaign pledge. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

Dictatorship in America Yadda-Yadda.

Responses to Facebook chats.

MY experience with a real 20-year dictatorship, in seven facts/truths: <1>Attack of the press is an understatement. The newspaper that I wrote for was raided by soldiers and senior staff were jailed. Many colleagues (from other papers) either went missing (desaparecidos or dead) or shot dead in front of people. Jail-time? That's being lucky. <2>Pulling from the streets is easy. Many were "snatched" not by masked men but uniformed soldiers and cops in front of people. Student activists were thrown off the 7th floor of the building, others tortured to name names. More gruesome stories?

       <3>Universities? It was 20 years. We got used to soldiers following us students wherever we went so we never went anywhere alone. And I ran fast and hid well, LOL! <4> Investigate who? It was Martial Law. Marcos was prez for 20 years with Washington backing. Dem? GOP? Who cares? Marcos won in 1965, and swept out of power in 1986, rescued by Washington to Hawaii. 

       <5>The Marcos Family defied everybody except the benefactor America. <6>All companies gave 10 to 15 percent of their monthly profit to the family, delivered in a bag ("bayong") while the boss was playing golf. In their years the Philippines produced gold almost equal to South Africa. Where are the golds now? <7> Extrajudicial killings a.k.a. “salvagings” were "ordinary." If you don't see your kin or friend or neighbor in 2 or 3 days? Expect their lifeless body floating in the river or dumped in the dumpsite. Etc etcetera. 

       Dictatorship in America? What dictatorship? People insult Trump openly. Then? Do that to Imelda then run for your life, literally. LOL! 🇵🇭☮️🇺🇸

<>BASED on what I know and experienced (and covered from age 14) of a dictatorship, military rule or Martial Law, I don’t think it will ever happen in America. If we are in Indonesia or Nigeria et al, yes I believe dictatorship can happen (again). I don't think it will even happen in Japan or Germany or France. Why? The U.S., regardless of (whoever) POTUS, is the most powerful/influential country and #1 economy in the world. Internal tempest only weakens America’s global clout, especially that China gained the trade leverage and BRICS is fast matching G7 in economic influence. 

       The U.S. needs global support, more in this century as its clout diminishes. (Howard Zinn predicted before he died in 2010, repeat 2010, that this huge divide will happen. Yet Trump is the classic alibi.) 

       True, Mr Trump aims to bring manufacturing back but he is more trying to please his minions or attend to his campaign pledge than he is seeing reality. At least, he is trying–no POTUS can lure back the 8,600+ U.S. companies in China (they may even move to India or Indonesia, BRICS bloc members).But the President can attract more FDIs. The last year the U.S. had a surplus was 1975. So Bill Clinton’s trade pact with Jiang Zemin in 2000 was simply the “nail in the coffin” of America’s economic rule though the 1 Percent U.S. corporations got richer due to the obvious; as China’s state-owned industries (and globally tops 5 banks) accentuated the Dragon’s trade expansionism.

       Per the deportation of students, back home they were simply EJK’ed or salvaged. In fact the son of my editor is still missing for a decade or so now, of course dead. He was snatched by soldiers, post-Marcos years. Honestly, this DOGE clean-up should happen in other countries as well, especially those who received a lot of foreign aid that bred massive corruption, including the Philippines then and Ukraine now. 

       In Corazon Aquino’s years (1986-1991), I was a member of her PCGG (directly under her), tasked to clean-up agencies and prosecute Marcos cronies and recover the family’s ill-gotten wealth. But because the Marcoses’ “money” was already placed and secured elsewhere and they enjoyed superpower coddle, only a fraction of what they stole was recovered. I mean Imelda won her case in New York City, remember? I resigned after a year with PCGG because I didn’t conform with how some officials were “bought.” I also protested USAID, by the way. Aid is quid pro quo: Gimme (foreign corporation) the trade contract, you (government official) get the aid. 🇵🇭☮️🇺🇸

Trade Wars and Stuff.

Responses to Facebook chats.

DURING Donald Trump's first "trade war" with China (2016 onwards), Vietnam and other smaller economies gained. The Philippines and others--with a huge labor force and supply of raw materials--should study how Vietnam did it. With other BRICS economies and non-aligned nations thinking more independently from the U.S./China economic head-butt, this tariff drama will not be this soap operatic. 

       Also because this is Mr Trump, anything that he does will be demonized by the New Left's media. Yet tariff tactics aren't new. Refer to Theodore Roosevelt or LBJ's tariff fight with Germany, and many more. 

       When China entered the WTO in 2001 (after the U.S. paved the way per U.S./China trade pact in 2000), tariff and duties and levies and corporate taxation that the West imposed for centuries have wobbled. The D is telling his voters that he can bring manufacturing back to the U.S. but he also knows he has to modify the playbook. No POTUS can bring America back to their pre-1975 trade surplus unless China and BRICS cease trading with Western allies (of course, that is not gonna happen). 

       Meanwhile, the 8,600+ U.S. companies in China may just expand in India and Indonesia. But Mr Trump can attract more FDIs to the US. Japan’s SoftBank, SK’s Hyundai and Taiwan’s TSMC are early birds. Nippon Steel may still acquire U.S. Steel that Biden blocked. This was China’s trick in the first 10 years after 2001. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

I DON'T think there's an economic panic. This is not that serious. George Soros crashed the Asian economy or currency in the 1990s with his speculative investing brinkmanship. That was also Japan’s “Lost Decade.” But as the region recovered, the Asian Tiger economies (and Tiger Cubs) flourished. Why? 

       We now go back to the Vietnam discussion. And whether we like it or not, China is right here. Note: In Nov 2020, as Biden was celebrating his win, China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies to form the largest trade bloc in history, the RCEP. So however the U.S. tries to bring the tilt back to the West, the East is prepared.

       But as I said, Donald Trump has to fulfill what he promised his minions. At least try to make America great again. The U.S. will never be the same not because China and BRICS balanced the scale but because America is imploding. The wide divide is crashing its own persona. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

Donald Trump and his foreign policy playbook.

Responses to Facebook chats.

DAMN! Donald Trump shakes the glade, indeed! I favor his foreign policy though but I didn't see the tariff quake and aid redo coming. But I see all these new dramas differently. 

  

       First, an impending (or happening?) spike in consumer products is what the world's top consumer market needs. Cut consumerism, uh huh. But we just bought a new 58" flat screen after my cat ruined my room TV and it is cheaper than the one that we bought 2 years ago! My friend and her son and grandchild just came home from a 1-week vacay in Florida. Discounts in their room accommodation? Did she just buy an electric bike with a trailer??? 

       So what tariff hassle are we talking about? Yet 50 out of the 90+ countries hit by Trump tariffs seek a negotiation with the U.S. That is good. That's the gambit. 

       And I want my country, the Philippines, to renegotiate import/export deals and do away with the "aid" quid pro quo that only enhances corruption. But my friends are busier with election-related drama than with the tariff thriller.

OF course China will match the U.S. tariff. They are THE Chinese. They have been haggling and hawing since the Silk Road days. Sure, Mr Trump will get manufacturing back (though not per pre-1975 surplus) but not the 8,600+ American companies in China (who may even expand or cross to India). 

       But The D can lure foreign giants in. The U.S. is still #1 consumer market and marketing showroom with awesome endorsers. Early FDI negotiations are from South Korea's Hyundai, Taiwan's TSMC and Japan's SoftBank. ☮️☮️☮️

RESET the global order but not via wars but via trade which is China's expansionism tactic. Engage China in its own game. But of course Washington stays hot on military brinkmanship. There'll be no drama per shakeup of Defense budget's $840+ receipt but there'll be cuts in NATO share. 

       President Trump is selective who to take out per "enemies" as he prefers to save the taxpayer money that are usually wasted in bombastic military operations. Remember, he took out Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Qasem Soleimani leading to the Doha Accords and the end of the Afghanistan war in his first term.  

       Example: Dare Iran to put a leash on Yemen's Houthis, to stop messing in the Red Sea. Iran will not wage war. Tehran's new moderate leadership wants the Strait of Hormuz unblemished for oil shipments to China, Tehran's top buyer. Iran needs to recover economically. Etc etcetera. ☮️☮️☮️

China and Trump's Foreign Policy.

Response to a Friend's Facebook post.

THE United States or Americans, it seems, are either very ignorant or eerily prejudiced of China. In turn they miscalculated the Chinese. Washington thought it could take advantage of China's resources (labor force, pertinent minerals) hence the Bill Clinton/Jiang Zemin trade pact in 2000. The following year, Beijing joined the WTO and totally rewrote how tariffs are played or dealt. 

       Then in 2009, China hooked up with Russia, India and Brazil to form the mammoth “emerging economies” group acronymed BRICS. And while the U.S. was partying after Joe Biden's win in 2020, two weeks after the election, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a trade bloc of 15 Asia/Pacific economies was formed. With China as ad hoc leader, the group is the largest trade bloc in the world so far. 

       Of course, there's the Belt and Road Initiative that accentuates China's trade expansionism. Yet the U.S. and the European Union stuck to military brinkmanship or hawkish playbooks. Meanwhile, the Middle East now largely junks "arms for oil" deals with the U.S. as UAE, Iran and Egypt joined BRICS in 2022? (Ever ponder why there is war in the Middle East right now?) 

       Donald Trump knows that the only way to compete with China and BRICS is via trade, not military braggadocio. So he modifies Washington's foreign policy. Yet there are matters that he can't reset, for now, like the 10-year arms deal with Israel that was signed by Barack Obama in 2016. And this is the powerful Israel Lobby, by the way. 

       Hot point in the Middle East is Iran but Iran now basically dances with China, Tehran's top oil buyer. Hence Mr Trump sent Elon Musk to Iran in January to talk business with the new moderate leadership out there. And as we know it, Tesla just expanded in China and Taiwan/TSMC just invested in the U.S. after Joe Biden's previous $6 billion deal didn't work out. Of course, China and Taiwan are big time trade buddies. Think Foxconn, think silicon. 

       At least President Trump knows how to play chess with China. But let's see how the tariff contest plays out. 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

Trump and Tariffs. And more Trump. And Life and Stuff.

Responds to Facebook chats.

I DON'T know why (after Donald Trump's first 4 years) many still don't know how he rolls. The real object of the "tariff trickery" is China. Mexico and Canada (NAFTA/USMCA pals) are no-brainers, although per Claudia Sheinbaum, the migrant deal is a chess move (it was a different move with Mr Obrador then). Canada's issue is internal (who will replace Justin Trudeau). 

       In 2016-2020, Trump's China tariff was lower (than what Barack Obama had) which led to a trade pact in 2020. Joe Biden didn't follow through and stayed low as China moved pieces per "green industry" export market (read EVs). 

       Both Biden and Trump invested big on tech. We need silicons etc. which China (and BRICS) has plenty of. Now Mr Trump raises the China tariff as he moves to a second trade pact. But China responded but not much yet the CCP clearly sends a subtle message. So let's see. 

       Washington tariff has always been up/down after China joined the WTO in 2001 due to the obvious. 

MEDIA plays the Trump storyline as click baits. Donald Trump is entertainment. The more he is hated by the Left, the more it's "fun" to them. And social media isn't about discussion of policies and stuff. It's a partisanship "mud fight." Tariff play is a trade move, which has to be modified, especially since China rolls the dice that isn't traditional Western commerce. 

       Meanwhile, since the Chinese government or CCP is top-down and their major industries are state-owned, they can simply issue economic modifications which usually "surprises" the West. They can because they have ample raw/pertinent materials and the largest labor force + they already scattered investments all over the world. 

       But the U.S. has stronger political clout (refer to why T shudders foreign aid, another chess move). The U.S. needs to be smarter. I am not saying Trump is smarter but he is a businessman, not a military strategist or traditional politician. He adjusts his playbook like a chess player, but we don't know if this will work. (And China isn't dumb either.) 

🏛🗽🏛

Life and Stuff. 

MY mindset is still lodged in the 1970s-1990s though or my writing demeanor is old-school. Without this platform or internet, I am still writing or publishing a newspaper as I did. Life is easier. (I only do FB and streaming TV, not other platforms.) But this life is now about my kids and grandkids. I am just a ghost enjoying what is here till I expire.

NEVER been sick (except occasional pollen allergies) since 2000. Not even fever. So I don't do maintenance drugs. No debts and my kids are now professional adults, who are relatively fine.

       That is why I said I am a ghost simply watching the world till I expire. I am unbelievably well. But I'm bored. At least until the start of gardening and yard work in spring.

WHEN I said my mind is in the `70s, it's mainly how I compare rage (or my rage vs dictatorship back home) and the hate these days. Then, the rage inspired me in a creative though radical way; these days, the hate pulls deep, implosion. So different. 

       And I am not really heaping blame on Left or Right per se. Howard Zinn predicted this divide (powered by hate, spread by the one-click internet) a few years before he died in 2010. Last protest movement that I embedded myself as a journalist was the Occupy movement in 2010, which didn't make sense to me; the last protest with a pro-active sense to me was the 1999 Battle of Seattle, which I covered.

       The times have changed a lot. the 1960s to 1990s was easier to navigate; 2000 to 2020s is so complex yet still shallow to me. ☮️☮️☮️

FAVORITES and INFLUENCES.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

FAVORITES. The sea. I emanated from an archipelago or a country with 7,641 islands. Surrounded by waters. Although I am not into swimming, water sports, or long travels by ship, I love the sea. (Though I worked with fisherfolk as an organizer for NGOs.) The sight of the sea offers me peace and quiet. The mountain that is adjacent to the ocean: The ideal existence. Summer trips to the sea in the province, on school breaks, punctuated my younger years. 🏝🌅🏝

INFLUENCES. William Shakespeare (1564 – 1616). English playwright and poet. Widely regarded as the most influential writer in the English language and the world's pre-eminent dramatist. His plays have been translated into every major language and are performed more often than those of any other playwright. Mr Shakespeare’s body of masterpieces continues to be studied and reinterpreted. No writer, I believe, denies the influence of Shakespeare in their work. ✍️📚✍️

FAVORITES. Spaghetti Western. Films produced in Italy mostly; mid-1960s. Sergio Leone! His films "demythologized” the conventions of traditional U.S. Westerns. My favorite Sergio Leone movies: “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,” starring Clint Eastwood, and “Once Upon a Time in the West.” Others: “Django” by Sergio Corbucci, and those hilarious Bud Spencer and Terence Hill films. Yes! Music by the great Ennio Morricone. 🐴🤠🐴

INFLUENCES. Bob Dylan’s “Blowin’ in the Wind.” He wrote the song when he was 21 years old. The song was included on his 1963 album “The Freewheelin' Bob Dylan.” A protest song that poses a series of rhetorical questions about peace, war, and freedom. The refrain "The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind" has been described as "impenetrably ambiguous: either the answer is so obvious it is right in your face, or the answer is as intangible as the wind.” 📚🍎🎼

FAVORITES. Scrapbooking. A method of preserving and arranging personal and family history in the form of a book, box, or card. Typical memorabilia include photographs, printed media, and artwork. Scrapbook albums are often decorated and frequently contain extensive journal entries or written descriptions. When we were young, I was the voluntary organizer of the family albums. Always have patience and diligence to spend hours in a weekend for scrapbooking. ✂️📘✒️

INFLUENCES. Greek Mythology. The body of myths as told by the ancient Greeks. The ancient Greek religion's view of the origin and nature of the world; the lives and activities of deities, heroes, and mythological creatures; and the origins and significance of the ancient Greeks' cult and ritual practices. Modern scholars study the myths to shed light on the religious and political institutions of ancient Greece, and to better understand the nature of myth-making itself. 🧙‍♀️🧝‍♀️🧙‍♂️

FAVORITES. Fish dishes. Choice of meal? Fish. All kinds of fish. With the head or fillet. The only food that I order at a Mexican restaurant is Mojarra Frita or fried tilapia. However a fish is cooked or prepared, that’s fine with me. Poached. Steamed. Grilled or barbecued. Baked. Braised. Fried. Microwaved. Air-fried. Sushi. Ceviche or “kinilaw.” My most favorite was “steamed lapu-lapu” (grouper) that my mom used to serve me, since I was the only heavy fish-eater in the family. 🐟🦈🐠

INFLUENCES. “Jonathan Livingston Seagull” is an allegorical fable written by Richard Bach. It is about a seagull who is trying to learn about flying, personal reflection, freedom, and self-realization. It was first published in book form in 1970 with little advertising or expectations; by the end of 1972, over a million copies were in print, the book having reached the #1 spot on bestseller lists mostly through word of mouth recommendations. A high school influence. 📚🍎🎼

FAVORITES. Haunted houses. Always been fascinated by “haunted houses.” As a little boy, I wasn’t scared of the dark or ghosts. “Paranormal spirits” won’t hurt us. Bad people do. I had many trips to visit haunted houses in the Philippines and in America. An old Hispanic house owned by a kin in Pangasinan province was a favorite. My aunt told me guerrillas in WW2 died in the basement. And “kapre” or giant man-horses lingered around on full-moon nights. Fun! 🧛‍♂️🏚🧟‍♀️

INFLUENCES. Woodstock, a rock music festival at Max Yasgur's farm in the town of Bethel, New York from 15 to 18 August 1969. It might be the most famous rock concert and festival ever held. For many, it showed the counterculture of the 1960s and the "hippie era.” Many of the most famous musicians at the time showed up during the rainy weekend, as can be seen in a 1970 movie, Woodstock. The festival was a major influence of my Traveling Bonfires. 🎸🎼☮️

[Photos: Pinterest. BeFunky.)